PMI连续回升彰显经济韧性

Economic Resilience - In the first half of the year, the Chinese economy demonstrated resilience amid complex domestic and international conditions, supported by a series of proactive policy measures [1] - The manufacturing PMI and composite PMI both showed a rebound for two consecutive months in June, indicating a gradual stabilization and improvement in the economy [1] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking a continuous recovery in the economic climate [1] - Production activities in June accelerated despite it being a traditional off-peak season, showing a seasonal anomaly [1] - The purchasing volume index rose significantly by 2.6 percentage points to 50.2%, while raw material inventory increased by 0.6 percentage points to 48%, the highest level this year [1] - The new orders index rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, indicating an overall improvement in market demand [1] Key Industries - The three major industries—equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods—maintained good expansion momentum, with PMIs of 51.4%, 50.9%, and 50.4% respectively, all remaining in the expansion zone for two consecutive months [2] - Equipment manufacturing showed particularly active production and demand, driving collaborative development across related industries [2] - The high-tech manufacturing sector provided strong support for economic transformation and high-quality development [2] - The consumer goods sector's steady expansion reflected improving consumer confidence and recovering market demand [2] Construction Sector - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the sector's climate [2] - The positive trend was supported by government policies and funding guarantees, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and local government special bonds [2] Service Sector - The service sector maintained steady expansion, with a business activity index of 50.1%, despite a slight decline due to seasonal factors [3] - Certain service industries, such as telecommunications, financial services, and insurance, remained robust with business activity indices above 60% [3] - The service sector's business activity expectations index remained high, reflecting optimism about future market developments [3] Fiscal and Monetary Policies - The issuance of new special bonds accelerated significantly in June, focusing on key areas to support economic growth [4] - The first round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions for the year has been fully implemented, alleviating pressure on the banking system and reducing financing costs [4] - The central bank and other departments are expected to introduce more incremental policies to further promote high-quality economic development [4] Real Estate Support - The central and local governments are increasing support for the real estate sector, with measures aimed at stabilizing the market and optimizing existing policies [5] - More special bond funds are expected to be allocated to areas such as shantytown renovation and old community upgrades to improve living conditions [5]