三大需求支撑 黄金短期回调提供买入机会

Core Viewpoint - The long-term bullish trend for gold is expected to continue due to core factors such as safe-haven demand, reserve demand, and allocation demand, with limited short-term adjustment space providing opportunities for low-level buying [1][2][3] Group 1: Safe-Haven Demand - The uncertainty in the global trade environment and ongoing geopolitical tensions have heightened market risk aversion, positively impacting the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The geopolitical situation shows signs of easing, but overall tensions remain, contributing to sustained high levels of risk aversion in the market [3] Group 2: Reserve Demand - There is a noticeable decline in the credit quality of global assets, prompting central banks to increase their gold reserves to mitigate potential credit crises, which boosts effective demand for gold and instills market confidence [2] - The ongoing process of reshaping the global monetary order under loose monetary policies is accelerating the demand for gold as a reserve asset [2] Group 3: Allocation Demand - Gold's low correlation with other assets makes it an effective tool for optimizing investment portfolios and hedging institutional risks, especially in the current uncertain economic, policy, and political environment [2] - The continued loose monetary and fiscal policies, along with rising government debt, further support the demand for gold through reserve and allocation channels [2] Group 4: Price Support Levels - The first support level for international gold is identified at $3170 to $3200 per ounce, with a core support level at $3000 per ounce, indicating limited downside potential [1][3] - A breakout above $3500 per ounce could lead to new historical highs for gold prices [3]