现货市场供给依然过剩 碳酸锂反弹空间不大

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - On June 24, lithium carbonate futures prices experienced a rebound after a prolonged decline, raising questions about a potential turning point in pricing [1] - The lithium carbonate industry is facing significant operational disruptions, with a near 50% shutdown rate; as of June 19, the weekly operating rate was 48.16%, with the smelting sector at 53.64% [1] - There is a clear division within the industry, where leading smelting companies maintain higher operating rates due to better order conditions, while many smaller firms with less cost advantage have ceased operations for months [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The supply-demand balance for leading smelting enterprises remains stable or slightly oversupplied, performing better than the overall industry, despite weakening cost support due to falling mineral prices and hedging operations [1] - In the first five months of 2025, lithium iron phosphate battery production surged to 476.03 GWh, a 75.64% year-on-year increase, significantly boosting the operating rate of the lithium iron phosphate industry [2] - However, with the traditional off-season approaching in July and August, battery manufacturers plan to reduce production, while the lithium carbonate sector is expected to maintain high supply levels, leading to downward pressure on prices [2] Group 3: Import Trends and Price Outlook - In May, lithium spodumene imports totaled approximately 605,000 tons, a slight month-on-month decrease of 2.9%, but imports from Australia and South America increased by over 20% [2] - Conversely, lithium carbonate imports fell significantly, with 21,145 tons imported in May, a 25.37% month-on-month decline, attributed to Chilean lithium salt producers pausing shipments and renegotiating prices [2] - Recent financial policies aimed at boosting consumer spending have positively impacted market sentiment, contributing to a slight rebound in lithium prices, although the overall supply remains excessive, leading to cautious optimism regarding the sustainability of this rebound [3]