利空压制 苯乙烯维持偏弱格局

Core Viewpoint - The recent weakening of geopolitical factors in the Middle East has led to a significant decline in domestic crude oil futures, which in turn has caused a drop in styrene prices due to reduced cost support. The outlook for the styrene market remains bearish due to increasing supply pressures and weak downstream demand [1][2][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The recent ceasefire between Iran and Israel has resulted in a rapid decrease in crude oil premiums, leading to a sharp decline in domestic crude oil futures by 9% [2]. - The escalation of the Middle East conflict previously drove crude oil prices up, with domestic crude oil futures rising by 22% since the conflict began [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Domestic styrene production profitability has improved, with theoretical profits for non-integrated styrene plants rising to 229 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 53 yuan/ton, representing a 30.11% rise [3]. - As of June 20, domestic styrene plant capacity utilization increased to 79.01%, a weekly rise of 5.20 percentage points, with production reaching 36.19 million tons, up 7.04% [3]. - Forecasts indicate that styrene production will continue to grow, with capacity utilization potentially reaching 79.5% and production increasing to 36.5 million tons by late June [3]. Group 3: Downstream Demand - Downstream demand for styrene has weakened, with total consumption from key downstream sectors (EPS, PS, ABS) decreasing to 24.73 million tons, a decline of 0.88% [4]. - Inventory levels for styrene have increased, with total stocks in major regions rising, including a 28.21% increase in Jiangsu port stocks [4].