半世纪以来最差开局！美元指数跌超10%结束上半年

Group 1 - Global stock markets reached historical highs at the end of Q2, benefiting from the easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict and optimism regarding US trade negotiations [1] - The US dollar index fell below 97, marking a 10.7% decline in the first half of the year, the worst start since the 1970s [1][2] - Speculative short positions on the dollar reached their highest level since July 2023, indicating a significant shift in investor sentiment towards the dollar [2][3] Group 2 - Investors' pessimism towards the dollar is at a 20-year high, reflecting growing concerns about US macroeconomic risks and long-term competitiveness [3] - A survey indicated that 54% of investors believe non-US stocks will provide the best returns over the next five years, while only 23% favor US stocks [3] - The potential for increased taxes on foreign ownership of US assets could deter capital inflows, negatively impacting the dollar [3] Group 3 - The outlook for the dollar remains weak due to ongoing concerns about US policy instability and a hostile foreign stance [4] - The dollar may be entering a prolonged period of weakness, similar to the decline seen from 2002 to 2008 [4] - Institutional investors are increasingly reducing their dollar exposure, with significant reductions noted among Danish pension funds [5] Group 4 - International investment flows significantly impact the value of the dollar, with a potential recovery linked to strong performance in US assets [6]