特朗普面临下台威胁？华尔街预警，美国经济衰退，美股恐暴跌25%

Economic Outlook - Wall Street warns of a potential 25% drop in the U.S. economy, which poses a significant threat to Trump's support base, particularly the blue-collar workers facing housing pressure and inflation-related purchasing power decline [2] - The U.S. economy shows signs of instability with a 0.3% contraction in Q1 GDP and declining consumer confidence in Q2, alongside an expanding fiscal deficit [4] Political Maneuvering - Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran is perceived as a political strategy to stabilize oil prices and mitigate inflationary pressures, while also limiting the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts [4][5] - The ceasefire is viewed as a carefully orchestrated political performance rather than a genuine resolution to the Middle East conflict, with no real winners among the involved parties [11] Market Reactions - Following the ceasefire announcement, global financial markets reacted with a drop in demand for the dollar as a safe haven, a significant decrease in oil prices, and a rebound in the Chinese yuan [9] - The shift in market dynamics indicates a potential decline in the dollar's dominance in the global financial system, as many central banks have increased their gold holdings to the highest level in five years [9] Domestic Challenges - Trump's military actions against Iran have sparked strong discontent within Congress, with both Democrats and some Republicans questioning the constitutionality of his decisions, leading to increased internal party divisions [7] - Public protests against Trump's policies are largely ignored as he grapples with more pressing issues, including the economic crisis and escalating trade tensions [7]