张尧浠：美经济萎缩降息前景加大、金价年底又显牛市机会

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy is experiencing a contraction, increasing the likelihood of interest rate cuts, which may lead to a bullish trend in gold prices by the end of the year [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The Chicago Business Activity Index for June is at its lowest level since January, indicating 19 consecutive months of economic contraction [3]. - The Dallas Fed Business Activity Index has contracted for the fifth consecutive month, contributing to a bearish outlook for the dollar [3]. Federal Reserve Outlook - Federal Reserve officials, including Bostic, anticipate one rate cut this year and three in the following year, suggesting a dovish monetary policy stance [3][6]. - Trump's potential appointment of a new Fed chair has further strengthened expectations for rate cuts next year, supporting the bullish outlook for gold [3][6]. Gold Price Movements - Gold prices opened at $3,272.74 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,247.77, and then rebounded to a high of $3,309.12, closing at $3,302.85, marking a daily increase of $30.11 or 0.92% [1]. - The price is expected to test the $3,400 level, with the 60-day moving average acting as a support level [1][10]. Market Sentiment - The market is currently cautious, awaiting key employment data, which is expected to show rising unemployment and decreasing job numbers, generally favorable for gold prices [3][5]. - Despite some bearish indicators, the overall sentiment remains bullish for gold due to anticipated economic conditions and Fed policy [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold has maintained a bullish outlook as it remains above the 5-month moving average, although a drop below this level could signal a potential decline to around $3,000 [8]. - The monthly chart indicates a potential top formation, but the prevailing trend remains upward unless significant support levels are breached [8][10].