黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.7.1）

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent agreement between the US and China on rare earth minerals and magnet exports has alleviated some market tensions [3] - The EU has expressed willingness to reach a trade agreement with the US, accepting a 10% general tariff while seeking to lower tariffs in key areas [3] - Canada's suspension of the digital services tax on US tech companies indicates a compromise stance in US-Canada trade negotiations [3] - The volatility and uncertainty in the global trade environment continue to support the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The Federal Reserve is currently maintaining the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, with officials cautious about rate cuts due to inflation remaining above the 2% target [4] - The market widely anticipates that the Federal Reserve will restart rate cuts in September, with a potential total reduction of 66 basis points throughout the year [4] - Continuous pressure from Trump on the Federal Reserve adds uncertainty, as he advocates for lowering rates to 1% or even lower [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a rebound after a sharp drop, indicating a potential upward trend, with a focus on the 10-day moving average resistance around 3335/3340 [6] - The four-hour chart indicates that gold is in the Y-wave adjustment cycle, with the market likely entering the Y-wave 2 rebound phase after completing the Y-wave 1 decline [8] - The first wave of the Y-wave 2 rebound is currently in progress, and investors should monitor for signs of resistance during this upward movement [8] - Key support levels to watch are the Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.5 and 0.618 from the recent high to low, with resistance levels at 3350 and 3374 [8]