美联储7月会议降息时间点难明,政策转向信号或更清晰

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is highlighted, with Chairman Powell indicating a need for more data before making decisions, suggesting that the July meeting may be more of an observation rather than an action point [1][4] - Internal divisions among Federal Reserve officials are evident, with some supporting a potential rate cut in July while others believe it is too early, leaning towards a September action [4][5] - Current market expectations show only an 18.6% probability for a July rate cut, while the probability for a September cut exceeds 75%, indicating a lack of confidence in immediate action [6] Group 2 - Key economic data points are critical for decision-making, including the June non-farm payroll data on July 3, June CPI data on July 15, and June PCE data on July 31 [7] - Mixed economic signals are present, with a downward revision of Q1 GDP to -0.5% and weak consumer spending, contrasted by rising consumer confidence and a stable labor market [8] Group 3 - External risks include trade policy disruptions, with a deadline for negotiations set for July 9, which could impact inflation expectations and delay rate cuts if negotiations fail [9] - Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to rising oil prices and inflation, further complicating the Fed's decision-making process [9] Group 4 - The most likely outcome of the July meeting is for the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rates while signaling a dovish stance towards future cuts, particularly in September [10] - Investors are advised to monitor key upcoming events, including employment data and tariff negotiations, which could significantly influence market volatility and investment strategies [10]