巨富金业小课堂：美联储加息落地后，黄金价格如何走？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex market dynamics of gold prices following the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, highlighting three distinct phases of price evolution after the last rate increase in July 2024. Group 1: Short-term Volatility Driven by Expectations - Prior to the July 2024 rate hike, gold prices fell from $2468 per ounce to $2380 per ounce, a decline of approximately 3.6% as the market had already priced in the rate increase [3] - Following the rate hike, if the Federal Reserve signals a dovish stance, gold may rebound quickly; for instance, after Chairman Powell indicated that inflation was under control, gold prices rose to $2420 per ounce within 48 hours, an increase of 1.7% [3] Group 2: Mid-term Dynamics of Real Interest Rates and the Dollar - After the rate hike, changes in real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation expectations) become crucial; for example, in March 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.58% to 4.24%, leading to a 12.5% increase in gold prices from 905 yuan per gram to 1018 yuan per gram [4] - Conversely, if inflation expectations decline unexpectedly, rising real interest rates could suppress gold prices; in June 2025, gold prices fell from 1018 yuan per gram to 984 yuan per gram, a decrease of 3.3% due to an increase in core PCE inflation expectations to 3% [4] Group 3: Long-term Support from Structural Factors - Central bank gold purchases provide long-term support; in Q1 2025, net gold purchases by central banks reached 289 tons, a year-on-year increase of 62%, with China's gold reserves hitting a record high of 2292 tons [4] - Despite a temporary strengthening of the dollar index post-rate hike, central bank purchases supported a 19% annual increase in gold prices, significantly outperforming the commodity index [4] - Investors should monitor three key signals: the "critical point" of a shift in Federal Reserve policy (e.g., unemployment rate exceeding 4.5%), the correlation between geopolitical risk indices and gold ETF holdings (e.g., a 5-ton increase in gold ETF holdings during Middle East conflicts in June 2025), and the spillover effects of industrial policies like carbon tariffs on precious metals with industrial properties [4]