股债“跷跷板效应”显现

Core Viewpoint - The bond futures market has experienced a decline since late June, influenced by factors such as tightening liquidity, rising risk appetite, and increased bond supply. However, as the fundamentals remain weak and liquidity is expected to be loose, the bond market may gradually strengthen in July [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond futures market has seen a pullback due to a tightening of the funding environment, with interbank market rates rising significantly, particularly DR007 which increased from around 1.5% to over 2%, marking a new high in over a month [1]. - The A-share market's continuous rise has created a "see-saw effect" with the bond market, as major indices reached yearly highs, leading to a shift of funds from the bond market to the stock market, particularly affecting long-term government bond futures [1]. - The issuance of bonds surged in June, with local government special bonds and ultra-long-term treasury bonds contributing to supply shocks in the bond market. The net financing of local government special bonds reached 529.2 billion yuan in the last week of June, a record high for the year [1]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Analysts expect that as the basic economic pressures increase and liquidity remains loose, the bond market is likely to strengthen in July. The anticipated decline in domestic demand and the weakening momentum of enterprises in the third quarter will further transmit pressure to the economy [2]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy meeting indicated a shift towards a more flexible approach to policy implementation, suggesting that the expectation of loose liquidity will gradually rise, which is favorable for the bond market [2]. - Key areas to monitor in July include changes in monetary policy and market liquidity, the impact of fiscal policy and bond supply, and economic data and expectations [3].