Workflow
国电电力(600795):水电投产新周期 盈利、估值或受益

Core Viewpoint - The company, backed by the State Energy Group, is a leading state-owned power generation enterprise in China, with a total installed capacity of 111.7 GW by the end of 2024, comprising 67% thermal power, 13% hydropower, and 20% renewable energy [1] Group 1 - The company has shown significant market value management results since the second half of 2020, with a potential for substantial asset injection from the group [1] - The company's stock price has increased by 165% from July 15, 2020, to June 27, 2025, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 9.28% for 2024, a notable improvement from -1.15% in 2020 [1] - The State Energy Group announced ongoing asset integration, with potential coal power assets injection that could provide 96% flexibility in coal power installed capacity [1] Group 2 - The Dadu River project is set to enter a new production cycle in 2025-2026, which is expected to enhance the company's profitability and valuation [2] - The hydropower capacity is projected to increase by 43% by the end of 2024, with downstream hydropower stations benefiting from increased annual power generation and improved electricity pricing [2] - The projected installed capacity of 3.52 million kW from the Dadu River project is expected to increase the company's net profit from hydropower by 31% to 2.735 billion yuan in 2024 [2] Group 3 - The company differs from market views that suggest lower allocation value due to declining coal prices, arguing that potential asset injections and new hydropower production will provide profit elasticity [3] Group 4 - The target price for the company's stock is set at 6.69 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 7.556 billion, 8.911 billion, and 9.375 billion yuan respectively [4] - The company’s expected price-to-earnings (PE) and price-to-book (PB) ratios for 2025 are 14.5 and 1.80, respectively, with a target market value of 119.3 billion yuan [4]