证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 电改深化，变中求稳 公用事业 2026 年度策略报告 周期/环保及公用事业 煤价企稳回升，叠加容量电价上涨，26 年整体电价降幅预计可控；区域来水 分化，短期内建议关注水电装机增长带来的弹性；136 号文陆续落地，预计新 能源短期电价和消纳承压。燃气板块，多个 LNG 气田陆续投产，全球 LNG 供 给将趋于宽松，价格中枢有望下移，从而提振需求。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 1 、 《 环 保 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （20251207）：机制电价竞价结果加 速落地，"41+9"打造氢能新动力》 2025-12-09 2 、 《 环 保 公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （20251130）：输配电价新规发布， 鼓励跨省跨区工程探索容量电价》 2025-12-01 3、《电力行业点评报告：点碳成金， "超碳一号"年内冲刺满功率发电》 2025-12-01 宋盈盈 S1090520080001 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 2025 年以来，环保及公用事业板块均有上涨。截止 12 月 13 日，公用事业 板块累计涨幅 3.61%，在 31 个申万 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power sector, particularly following the increase in coal power capacity pricing in Yunnan, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies [6][8]. Core Insights - Yunnan has announced an increase in the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, effective from 2026, which will enhance the stability of coal power revenues and support the integration of renewable energy sources [6][7]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices in the U.S. and Northeast Asia, with the latter reaching a 20-month low, indicating a favorable environment for gas companies [10][24]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity, capacity, and ancillary service revenues [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - Yunnan's new policy sets the coal power capacity price at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year, allowing full recovery of fixed costs, which is expected to improve the profitability of coal power plants [6][7]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% being green energy, necessitating coal power for peak load support [7]. - The report recommends several companies, including Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian, for their integrated coal power operations [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - U.S. Henry Hub spot prices fell to $4.07/mmBtu, a decrease of 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices dropped to $10/mmBtu, down 6.19% [10][11]. - The report notes that strong supply and high inventory levels in Northeast Asia are contributing to the price decline, with expectations of further price sensitivity from buyers as prices approach $10/mmBtu [24][26]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and improved margins [31][32]. 3. Market Performance - The report indicates that the power and equipment sectors outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index during the review period, while the gas and environmental sectors lagged [34]. - It provides a detailed valuation table for key utility companies, highlighting their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [46]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government policies emphasize the development of a clean, low-carbon energy system, with a target of 25% non-fossil energy consumption by 2030 [40][41]. - The report discusses the ongoing transition in the energy sector towards market-driven growth, particularly in new energy storage solutions [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the power and gas sectors, including China Power Investment Corporation, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Resources Power [48]. Core Insights - Yunnan Province has increased the coal power capacity price recovery of fixed costs to 100%, which is expected to stabilize revenue for coal power companies and enhance their role in supporting renewable energy integration [7][8]. - The report highlights a significant drop in natural gas prices, with Northeast Asia LNG prices reaching a 20-month low, driven by strong supply and mild weather conditions [12][26]. - The investment analysis suggests a diversified revenue model for coal power companies, transitioning from reliance on electricity sales to a combination of electricity revenue, capacity income, and ancillary service income [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Power: Yunnan Increases Coal Power Capacity Price - Yunnan has announced a new mechanism for coal power capacity pricing, allowing for full recovery of fixed costs starting in 2026, set at 330 RMB per kilowatt per year [7][8]. - The province's total installed power capacity exceeds 168 million kilowatts, with over 90% from green energy sources, necessitating coal power for peak load support [8]. 2. Gas: Global Gas Price Trends - As of December 12, the Henry Hub spot price in the U.S. was $4.07/mmBtu, down 21.56% week-on-week, while Northeast Asia LNG prices fell to $10/mmBtu, a decrease of 6.19% [12][13]. - The report notes that the overall supply of natural gas remains robust, contributing to lower prices in Northeast Asia [26][28]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The power and power equipment sectors outperformed the CSI 300 index, while the public utility, gas, and environmental protection sectors lagged behind [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government meetings and policy announcements emphasize the importance of a clean, low-carbon energy system and the development of a new energy system by 2030 [40][43]. - The report includes updates on major companies, such as China Resources Power and Longyuan Power, highlighting their financial activities and operational performance [44][46].

企查查APP显示，近日，国家电投集团生物质能源有限公司成立，法定代表人为赵永刚，注册资本为80 亿元，经营范围包含：发电业务、输电业务、供（配）电业务；燃气经营；燃气汽车加气经营；肥料生 产；储能技术服务等。企查查股权穿透显示，该公司由国家电力投资集团有限公司、国网综合能源服务 集团有限公司共同持股。 （原标题：国家电投集团生物质能源公司成立，注册资本80亿） ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 ——公用事业行业周报（20251214） 要点 本周行情回顾：本周 SW 公用事业一级板块下跌 0.09%，在 31 个 SW 一级板 块中排名第 11；沪深 300 下跌 0.08%，上证综指下跌 0.34%，深证成指上涨 0.84%，创业板指上涨 2.74%。细分子板块中，火电上涨 0.22%，水电下跌 0.26%，光伏发电上涨 1.27%，风力发电上涨 0.11%，电能综合服务上涨 0.48%，燃气下跌 0.86%。本周公用事业涨幅前五的个股分别为嘉泽新能 （+9.71%）、银星能源（+8.58%）、中泰股份（+7.79%）、西昌电力（+5.38%）、 郴电国际（+4.14%）；周跌幅前五的个股分别为蓝天燃气（-15.21%）、德 龙汇能（-14.02%）、惠天热电（-12.62%）、华通热力（-11.33%）、联美 控股（-10.05%）。 本周数据更新：本周动力煤价格加速下跌。其中，秦皇岛港 5500 大卡动力煤 （中国北方，平仓价）周环比下跌 39 元/吨；防城港 5500 大卡动力煤（印度 尼西亚，场地价）本周周环比下跌 10 元/吨；广州港 5500 大卡动力 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector [4] Core Views - The increase in coal power capacity price compensation in Yunnan province is expected to accelerate the development of provincial capacity pricing policies across various regions [7] - The decline in port coal prices and high inventory levels are influencing market dynamics, with expectations of a gradual narrowing of price declines in the future [7] - The utility sector is viewed as a defensive asset, with low-priced utility assets becoming increasingly attractive for investors [7] - The report emphasizes the need for further market-oriented pricing reforms to support the evolving power system as renewable energy consumption increases [7] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report expresses optimism for the utility sector, highlighting the advantages of dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment [7] - Specific stock recommendations include Huadian International (600027), Guodian Power (600795), Huaneng International (600011), Anhui Energy (000543), and Jiantou Energy (000600) for thermal power [7] - For hydropower, it suggests focusing on quality large hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power (600900) and Sichuan Investment Energy (600674) [7] - Nuclear power is noted for its long-term growth certainty, with China General Nuclear Power (003816) recommended [7] - Wind and solar sectors are expected to see growth, with a focus on companies with high wind power ratios [7] Industry Dynamics - Yunnan province's coal power capacity price compensation has increased to 100% of fixed costs, which is expected to alleviate operational pressures on coal power plants [7] - Port coal prices have continued to decline, with the Qinhuangdao port price for Shanxi Q5500 coal at 745 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.1% [13] - The report notes that coal inventory levels are high, with Qinhuangdao port coal inventory at 7.22 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.5% [21] - The average electricity price in Guangdong has decreased by 13.0% year-on-year, while Shanxi has seen a significant drop of 57.9% [10] Hydrology and Water Levels - The Three Gorges Reservoir's water level is currently at 172 meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [29] - The average inflow to the Three Gorges Reservoir has decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, while the outflow has increased by 93% since Q4 2025 [29]

2020-2025年1-10月中国发电量产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市企业：华能国际（600011）,大唐发电（601991）,国电电力（600795）,华电国际（600027）,长江电 力（600900）,国投电力（600886）,川投能源（600674）,桂冠电力（600236）,内蒙华电（600863）,浙 能电力（600023） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国能源行业市场研究分析及投资前景评估报告》 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年10月中国发电量产量为8002亿千瓦时，同比增长7.9%；2025年1-10月 中国发电量累计产量为80625.5亿千瓦时，累计增长2.3%。 ...

首药控股：筹划发行H股股份并在香港联交所上市 12月11日晚，首药控股(688197)发布公告称，公司正在筹划发行H股股份并在香港联交所上市事宜。公 司正与中介机构就本次H股上市的具体推进工作进行商讨，相关细节尚未确定。 江苏国信：子公司国信马洲100万千瓦机组投产 12月11日晚，江苏国信(002608)发布公告称，控股子公司江苏国信马洲发电有限公司（简称"国信马 洲"）新建的一台1000MW二次再热超超临界燃煤发电机组，完成168小时满负荷试运行，于2025年12月 12日正式投产运营。 悦康药业：mRNA肿瘤疫苗NMPA临床试验获批准 12月11日晚，悦康药业(688658)发布公告称，全资子公司研发的注射用YKYY031，一种基于自主知识 产权LNP递送系统的通用型mRNA肿瘤疫苗，已获得国家药品监督管理局临床试验批准，拟用于治疗晚 期实体瘤。 动力新科：将出资6.66亿元与联合体其他各方一起参与上汽红岩重整 12月11日晚，动力新科(600841)发布公告称，公司全资子公司上汽红岩收到重庆五中院（2025）渝05破 282号之四《民事裁定书》。重庆五中院已于2025年12月12日裁定批准了上汽红岩重 ...

以下是第一财经对一些重要公告的汇总，供投资者参考。 【品大事】 隆盛科技：拟3.5亿元投建具身智能机器人创新中心项目 3连板中源家居：股票价格短期波动较大 存在非理性炒作风险 中源家居公告，公司股票价格短期波动较大，短期涨幅显著高于同期上证指数，存在非理性炒作风险，可能存在短期涨幅较大后的大幅下跌风险。公司目前 生产经营活动正常，主营业务未发生重大变化，外部经营环境存在较大不确定性。公司不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息，不存在影响公司股票交易价格异 常波动的重大事项。 恒瑞医药：HRS9531注射液临床试验获批准 针对MASH适应症全球暂无同类药物获批上市 恒瑞医药公告称，子公司福建盛迪医药有限公司收到国家药监局核准签发的HRS9531注射液的《药物临床试验批准通知书》，将于近期开展临床试验。 HRS9531注射液是具有全球自主知识产权的新型靶向抑胃肽受体（GIPR）和胰高血糖素样肽-1受体（GLP-1R）的双激动剂，可在体内调节糖脂代谢、抑制 食欲和增强胰岛素敏感性，从而起到改善血糖和减轻体重的效果。对于代谢功能障碍相关脂肪性肝炎（MASH）患者，HRS9531注射液有望通过改善肝脏脂 质堆积、减轻炎症反应及 ...

截至发稿，国电电力市值为1052亿元。 每经AI快讯，国电电力（SH 600795，收盘价：5.9元）12月12日晚间发布公告称，公司八届四十次董事 会会议于2025年12月12日以通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于投资建设国能谏壁八期2×100万千瓦扩建 项目的议案》等文件。 2025年1至6月份，国电电力的营业收入构成为：火力发电行业占比81.98%，新能源发电行业占比 9.59%，水力发电行业占比7.09%，其他业务占比1.33%，科技环保行业占比0.02%。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——实施城乡居民增收计划、降准降息等工具灵活高效运用、增加普通高中学 位……深度解读中央经济工作会议 （记者 王瀚黎） ...