1-2 月风电装机增长提速，本周动力煤价格快速上涨 2026 年 3 月 29 日 行业研究 ——公用事业行业周报（20260329） 要点 本周行情回顾：本周 SW 公用事业一级板块上涨 1.56%，在 31 个 SW 一级板 块中排名第 2；沪深 300 下跌 1.41%，上证综指下跌 1.09%，深证成指下跌 0.76%，创业板指下跌 1.68%。细分子板块中，火电上涨 4.78%，水电上涨 0.7%，光伏发电上涨 1.61%，风力发电上涨 4.33%，电能综合服务上涨 2.36%， 燃气下跌 0.62%。 本周数据更新：本周国产、进口动力煤价格周同比快速上涨。其中，国产秦皇 岛港 5500 大卡动力煤（中国北方，平仓价）周环比上涨 25 元/吨。进口动力 煤中，防城港 5500 大卡动力煤（印度尼西亚，场地价）周同比上涨 10 元/ 吨，广州港 5500 大卡动力煤（澳洲优混，场地价）周环比上涨 20 元/吨。本 周山西（出清算数均值，实时市场）现货周平均出清价格周同比有所下跌、广 东（加权平均电价）有所上涨。代理购电电量电费全国大范围下行，主要原因 系火电年度长协电价大幅下行叠加新能源全面入市，降低 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The utility sector shows stable growth with improved cash flow and increased dividends. Despite a slight revenue decline of 3.3% year-on-year due to falling electricity prices, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 3.5% year-on-year, primarily driven by a 9.4% increase in profit from thermal power due to lower fuel costs [13][25] - The return on equity (ROE) for the utility sector stands at 8.6%, with thermal power ROE recovering to 9.4%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [13][25] - Cash flow has significantly improved, with operating cash flow increasing by 23.9% year-on-year. The free cash flow for thermal power has turned positive, while green power is close to breakeven [25][30] - Dividends have increased across all segments, with the overall dividend payout ratio rising by 2.5 percentage points to 55.2%. Thermal power saw a notable 15% increase in total dividends [30] Summary by Sections Annual Report Overview - The utility sector's performance is stable, with cash flow improvements and increased dividends. The revenue for the sector slightly decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 3.5% [13][25] - The ROE for the sector is 8.6%, with thermal power showing a recovery to 9.4% [13][25] - Operating cash flow increased by 23.9% year-on-year, and free cash flow for thermal power improved significantly [25][30] Industry Data Tracking - The report highlights the slowdown in the growth rate of new energy installations by leading companies, with significant declines in wind and solar electricity prices, which are expected to impact profitability [36] - The average on-grid electricity price for thermal power decreased by 1-3 cents per kilowatt-hour, while wind and solar prices fell by 7-10% [36] Sector Performance Tracking - The report indicates that the utility sector has outperformed the market, with the GFGY index showing a 15.74% increase year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 31.97% since 2020 [57][66]

投资建议与投资标的 公用事业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 光伏新增装机下滑，天然气价维持高位 公用事业行业周报（2026.03.23-2026.03.27） 核心观点 行业 公用事业行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 29 日 | 孙辉贤 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090003 | | --- | --- | | | sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙怡萱 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110002 | | | sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 用电需求上行，火电由负转正：公用事业 行业周报（2026.03.16-2026.03.20） 2026-03-22 十五五目标明确，强调电力市场改革：公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.03.09- 2026.03.13） 2026-03-15 再度强调价格改革，算电协同助发展：公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.03.02- 2026.03.06） 2026-03-08 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后 ...

公用事业行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 光伏新增装机下滑，天然气价维持高位 公用事业行业周报（2026.03.23-2026.03.27） 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 行业 公用事业行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 29 日 | 孙辉贤 | 执业证书编号：S0860525090003 | | --- | --- | | | sunhuixian@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 孙怡萱 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110002 | | | sunyixuan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 用电需求上行，火电由负转正：公用事业 行业周报（2026.03.16-2026.03.20） 2026-03-22 十五五目标明确，强调电力市场改革：公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.03.09- 2026.03.13） 2026-03-15 再度强调价格改革，算电协同助发展：公 用 事 业 行 业 周 报 （2026.03.02- 2026.03.06） 2026-03-08 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后 ...

Core Viewpoint - The investment logic in the power industry has evolved into a tightly integrated ecological loop, driven by the increasing demand for electricity from AI applications and the need for stable and green energy supply [1][41]. Generation Segment - The power sector can be divided into three segments: generation, transmission, and storage [6]. - The distinction between traditional power and green power is crucial; traditional power includes all forms of electricity generation, while green power focuses on cleaner, low-carbon sources [8]. - The core attribute of the power index is its coverage of public utilities and high dividends, making it a defensive asset [10][12]. - Major constituents of the power index include companies like Changjiang Electric Power and China Nuclear Power, with respective weights of 8.81% and 7.56% [13]. Green Power Index - The National Green Power Index is more focused on clean energy operations, with a strong correlation to green power trading mechanisms and carbon neutrality policies [15]. - The demand for green power is rigid due to AI's expansion, with regulations requiring new data centers to source over 80% of their energy from green power [15]. - The National Green Power Index has a lower proportion of thermal power stocks compared to the China Securities Green Power Index, which includes a significant amount of thermal power [21]. Transmission Segment - The transmission segment, represented by grid equipment, shows greater growth elasticity compared to the generation segment due to the high demands of AI on electricity [27][28]. - The State Grid plans to invest 4 trillion yuan in fixed assets from 2026 to 2030, a 40% increase from the previous five-year plan, indicating significant growth potential in this area [28][29]. - The market has two main indices tracking grid equipment: the China Securities Grid Equipment Theme Index and the Hang Seng A-Share Grid Equipment Index, which have shown different performance due to their constituent stocks [30]. Storage Segment - Energy storage is becoming increasingly important as it stabilizes the supply from renewable sources, which can be intermittent [36]. - The geopolitical landscape has highlighted the importance of energy security, making the integration of solar and storage solutions more attractive [36]. - The investment logic for energy storage is being elevated due to the dual catalysts of energy security and the demands of AI [36]. Overall Investment Outlook - The power investment ecosystem is characterized by a stable generation base, capital expenditure benefits from grid equipment, and explosive growth in energy storage driven by AI and energy security needs [41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector in China [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the recovery in electricity demand and the positive turnaround in thermal power generation [2][8] - It highlights the need for further reforms in the electricity market to accommodate a higher proportion of renewable energy consumption [8][19] - The report suggests that utility assets are likely to be revalued positively due to the restructuring of international order [8] Summary by Sections Electricity Demand and Generation - In January and February 2026, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 6.1% year-on-year, up from 3.3% in December 2025 [8] - The growth rates for different sectors were: primary industry +7.4%, secondary industry +6.3%, tertiary industry +8.3%, and residential use +2.7% [8] - The generation of electricity from large-scale power plants rose by 4.1% year-on-year, with thermal power generation increasing by 3.3% [19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in the utility sector, particularly in thermal power companies such as: - Jiantou Energy (000600, Buy) - Huadian International (600027, Buy) - Guodian Power (600795, Buy) - Huaneng International (600011, Buy) - Anhui Energy (000543, Buy) [8] - It also suggests looking into gas companies and hydropower firms for potential investment opportunities [8] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the Shenyang utility index fell by 2.4%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.2% but outperforming the Wind All A index by 1.7% [8] - The report indicates that the coal prices have increased, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price at 735 RMB/ton, up 0.8% week-on-week [35] Natural Gas Prices - The report highlights a significant increase in natural gas prices, with the Dutch TTF gas price rising by 18.2% week-on-week [48] - The domestic LNG ex-factory price was reported at 4868 RMB/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [50] Hydropower and Renewable Energy - The report suggests that hydropower has a simple and efficient business model, with the lowest cost per kilowatt-hour among all power sources [8] - It anticipates continued growth in wind and solar energy under carbon neutrality expectations, recommending leading companies in these sectors [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the utility sector in China [4] Core Insights - Electricity demand is on the rise, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1% in total electricity consumption for January and February 2026, compared to a 3.3 percentage point increase from December 2025 [8] - The growth in electricity consumption is attributed to a recovery in economic activity and a low base effect from the previous year [12] - Power generation growth has rebounded, with thermal power growth turning positive at 3.3% year-on-year for January and February 2026 [19] - The report highlights the potential for value reassessment of low-priced utility assets amid international order restructuring [8] - The report suggests that the utility sector remains a quality asset for investment, benefiting from the ongoing reforms in the electricity market [8] Summary by Sections Electricity Demand and Supply - Total electricity consumption increased by 6.1% year-on-year in January and February 2026, with significant growth in primary (7.4%), secondary (6.3%), and tertiary industries (8.3%) [8][12] - Power generation from large-scale power plants rose by 4.1% year-on-year, with thermal power showing a recovery [19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in the utility sector, particularly in thermal power companies such as: - Jiantou Energy (000600, Buy) - Huadian International (600027, Buy) - Guodian Power (600795, Buy) - Huaneng International (600011, Buy) - Anhui Energy (000543, Buy) [8] - For gas, companies like Shouhua Gas (300483, Not Rated) and Xintian Gas (603393, Not Rated) are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of rising natural gas prices [8] - In hydropower, quality assets in favorable basins are recommended for investment [8] Market Dynamics - The report notes a decline in the Shenyang spot electricity price by 14.2% year-on-year, while Shanxi's price increased by 26.3% year-on-year [31][33] - Coal prices have risen, with Qinhuangdao's Q5500 coal price at 735 RMB/ton, reflecting a 9.2% increase year-on-year [35] - Natural gas prices have surged, with the Dutch TTF gas price increasing by 18.2% week-on-week [48]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Buy [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the revaluation of green electricity and highlights the importance of annual and quarterly performance reports [2] - The electricity consumption in January-February 2026 increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with significant contributions from the tertiary sector and urban-rural residents [4][16] - The report indicates a shift in electricity consumption growth from secondary industries to the tertiary sector and urban-rural residents, with the latter contributing 34.6% to total growth from 2023 to 2025 [4][16] - The report notes the recovery of thermal power generation, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% in the same period [4][16] - The integration of "light, storage, computing, and network" in projects like Guangdong Energy's photovoltaic project marks the arrival of the computing electricity era, similar to the green electricity boom in 2021 [4] - The report suggests that the first quarter's performance will be a crucial factor for the electricity sector, as the market has already priced in potential impairments from annual reports [4] - The report identifies several companies with strong performance potential, including Huaneng International Power, Huadian International Power, and others across various segments such as thermal, hydropower, gas, and nuclear power [4] Summary by Sections Electricity Consumption - In January-February 2026, total electricity consumption reached 1.65 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% [16] - The contribution from the tertiary sector and urban-rural residents increased, with their combined share reaching 36.5% [16] Installed Capacity - The report forecasts an addition of 438 GW in wind and solar capacity by 2025, with thermal power's share decreasing to 40% [4] Water Conditions - The report notes significant variations in water conditions as of March, with some river basins experiencing abundant water supply [4] Electricity Prices - The report highlights the importance of stable electricity and coal prices, indicating an improvement in price expectations [4] Coal Prices - Recent coal prices remain high, with LNG import prices increasing by 20% year-on-year [4] Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential investment opportunities arising from the transition in the energy sector [4]

Group 1 - The core message is about the meeting between the General Manager of State Power Investment Corporation, Xu Shubiao, and Matthias Dohrn, the President of Global Procurement at BASF, focusing on deepening cooperation in the energy sector [1] - The collaboration will include practical cooperation in areas such as green power trading, green hydrogen energy, and biomass fuel [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - China announced its participation in the "Triple Nuclear Energy Declaration" on March 10, reaffirming its long-term nuclear power development strategy. As a major nuclear power country, China is expected to be a key contributor to the global nuclear power capacity expansion target, with an anticipated approval pace of 8-10 new nuclear units annually, ensuring a high certainty of a prolonged favorable cycle for the nuclear power industry [2][6] - The nuclear power sector is experiencing improvements in both volume and price. The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the active and orderly advancement of coastal nuclear power construction, which, along with the declaration, confirms the long-term development path for nuclear power. The expected reforms in the nuclear power pricing mechanism may provide opportunities for stable cash flow and discounted value, reinforcing the core investment logic [11] Summary by Sections Nuclear Power Development - China aims to increase its operational nuclear power units from 49 to 134 by 2050, with a total capacity target of approximately 153 million kilowatts. By the end of 2025, China is projected to have 112 operational, under-construction, and approved nuclear units with a total capacity of 126 million kilowatts, indicating a conservative approval pace of only 22 new units over the next 20 years [6] - Globally, the target is to triple nuclear power capacity by 2050, requiring an average annual installation of 31.3 million kilowatts, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.45% [6] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Huaneng International, Datang Power, Guodian Power, Huadian International, China Power, and Huaneng Power for traditional coal-fired operations. For hydropower, focus on Yangtze Power, Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Huaneng Hydropower. In the renewable energy sector, consider Longyuan Power, New天 Green Energy, China Nuclear Power, and Zhongmin Energy [11][15][16][17][19]