关税效应滞后通胀引而不发 10年期美债收益率上半年下跌35BP

Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yield Trends - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell by 5 basis points (BP) to 4.23%, marking a two-month low, down 19 BP from the end of May and nearly 35 BP from the end of 2024 [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 3 BP to 3.72%, significantly down 52 BP from the 4.24% level at the end of 2024, with the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year bonds widening by 17 BP in the first half of the year [2] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - In the first quarter, uncertainty from Trump's tariff policies and a slowing U.S. economy heightened risk aversion, leading investors to flock to Treasuries, causing yields to decline. However, a sharp sell-off occurred in early April as hedge funds reduced leverage, raising liquidity concerns in the Treasury market [4] - Optimism in the market improved in June due to effective trade negotiations, while persistent low inflation reignited investor confidence in potential rate cuts. The market's expectations for rate cuts have significantly increased, with most traders anticipating a reduction to the 3.5%-3.75% range by December [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Position - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell expressed concerns that tariffs could raise inflation but indicated that if inflation remains controlled, rate cuts could occur sooner rather than later. He refrained from specifying a particular meeting for potential rate adjustments [4] - The general consensus among economists is that the impact of tariffs on inflation may have a lagging effect, with upcoming inflation data expected to reflect the true trend of price increases [5] Group 4: Legislative Impact on National Debt - The U.S. Senate approved a procedural vote for the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which is projected to increase U.S. national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade, exceeding the House version by approximately $800 billion. The current national debt stands at $36.2 trillion [6] - Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that the bill would increase the debt burden and undermine the U.S.'s global standing, with actual debt growth potentially exceeding $4 trillion due to temporary tax cuts and expanded borrowing [7] Group 5: Future Debt Challenges - Apollo economists highlighted that inflation risks and a growing budget deficit are likely to exert upward pressure on Treasury yields in both the short and long term. The Treasury will need to refinance $9 trillion in debt over the next 12 months, with rising debt repayment costs [7]