大摩：本轮美股上涨有坚实的基本面

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the recent rebound in the US stock market is supported by fundamental improvements, driven by three key factors: earnings expectations revision, a shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations, and a reduction in geopolitical and policy risks [1][10][12] Group 2 - Earnings expectations have significantly improved, with the breadth of earnings revisions rising from a low of -25% in mid-April to -5%, indicating a strong recovery in corporate earnings outlook [3][5] - Historical data suggests that similar V-shaped recoveries in earnings revisions often lead to strong market returns over the following 12 months [5] - The preference for large-cap quality stocks, represented by the "Magnificent Seven," continues to lead in earnings revisions and stock performance, while small-cap stocks lag behind historical highs [7][14] Group 3 - The market is increasingly pricing in potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Morgan Stanley predicting up to seven rate cuts by the end of next year, which could support stock valuations in the second half of this year [10][11] - Employment market data will be a key trigger for the Fed's policy shift, with significant private sector job growth below expectations potentially prompting earlier rate cuts [11] Group 4 - Geopolitical risks have eased, with oil prices dropping 14% since June 19, reducing inflationary pressures and potential threats to the business cycle [13] - The removal of concerns regarding the "capital tax" clause from the "Big Beautiful" plan alleviates risks related to foreign direct investment in the US [13] Group 5 - The current stock risk premium is at a 20-year low, while earnings risk is at a 20-year high, indicating a notable contradiction that warrants attention [14] - Long-term prospects remain optimistic, with AI-driven productivity improvements expected to contribute an additional 30 basis points to S&P 500 net profit margins by 2025-2026, expanding to 50 basis points by 2027 [16]