摩根大通交易员：短期内看涨美股，将出现一波新的历史高点

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index has surpassed and maintained the 6000-point mark, reaching a historical high, indicating a bullish market outlook [1] - Morgan Stanley's market intelligence team predicts that macroeconomic data improvements, underestimated corporate earnings expectations, and clearer policies will support the bullish sentiment [1][2] - Financial and technology sectors are expected to drive the market upward, with financial stocks leading the momentum followed by large tech stocks, particularly ahead of Nvidia's earnings report on August 28 [1][2] Group 2 - The short-term stance remains "tactically bullish," with expectations of continued optimistic macro data supporting the S&P 500 index [2] - The low expectations for the earnings season provide a buffer for corporate performance, particularly in the financial and tech sectors, which are anticipated to perform strongly throughout the earnings season [2] - The postponement of the "tariff deadline" on July 9 is expected to prevent market volatility, as the government aims to avoid severe market corrections similar to the 10.8% drop experienced in April [2] Group 3 - The bullish arguments are supported by significant improvements in the macroeconomic backdrop and strong momentum following the S&P 500's breakthrough of 6000 points [4] - The ongoing enthusiasm for AI and the light positioning of investors provide upward space for the market, with the Nasdaq index rising by 4% and a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield by 10 basis points [4] - Bearish arguments appear weak, lacking strong data support, and are described as "the weakest sell arguments in history," despite some technical indicators suggesting potential short-term resistance [4]