尿素：2025年产能增635万吨，期价或低位震荡

Core Viewpoint - The urea market in the second half of 2025 will be influenced by a mix of supply and demand factors, with export policies playing a crucial role [1] Supply Factors - In the first half of 2025, approximately 3.5 million tons of new urea production capacity will be added, leading to a long-term daily output exceeding 200,000 tons [1] - An additional 2.8 million tons of new capacity is planned for the second half, with daily output expected to surpass 210,000 tons after September [1] - By the end of the year, total production capacity is projected to increase by 6.35 million tons, an 8.22% year-on-year growth, with total output anticipated to reach 70 million tons, reflecting an 8.14% year-on-year increase [1] Demand Factors - Agricultural demand remains strong in the first half of the year, with consumption growth of 8.89% from January to May, despite some seasonal fluctuations [1] - In the second half, both agricultural and industrial demand are expected to weaken, leading to a noticeable decline in consumption growth, with an annual increase forecasted at 4.5% to 5% [1] - Total consumption is estimated to be between 63.43 million and 63.73 million tons, which is lower than the projected production [1] Export and International Market - High uncertainty in the global market affects urea costs, production, and transportation [1] - The potential easing of export policies and the resumption of supply to India will significantly impact the export landscape and market sentiment [1] - If no policy changes occur, exports are unlikely to affect domestic supply and demand, but market sentiment may still be influenced by policy dynamics [1] Inventory and Cost Factors - High inventory levels were maintained in the first half of the year, with a seasonal accumulation observed from April to June [1] - The second half is expected to see continued high inventory pressure due to increased production capacity and weakened domestic demand, posing a risk of further accumulation [1] - Coal prices have decreased, reducing cost support for urea, with coal costs down by 110 to 130 yuan per ton compared to the end of last year [1] Market Outlook - The urea market in the second half of 2025 will face multiple pressures, but there are also supporting factors such as potential easing of export policies [1] - If export policies are unexpectedly relaxed, spot prices may approach the highs seen in the first half; if policies remain unchanged or tighten, the market will revert to being driven by domestic supply and demand, putting pressure on prices [1] - Price forecasts suggest that without unexpected contradictions, urea futures prices will trend lower, fluctuating within a range of 1,500 ± 100 yuan per ton for the low end and 1,800 to 1,850 yuan per ton for the high end [1]