玻璃行业：上半年产需双降，下半年中枢850 - 950元/吨

Core Viewpoint - The glass industry is facing a supply-demand imbalance that is expected to persist into 2025, with futures prices likely to remain low for an extended period [1] Group 1: Supply and Production - In the first half of 2025, the glass industry's production capacity continues to decline, with the average operating rate of float glass industry down by 8.58 percentage points compared to the same period last year, and production down by 10% [1] - The daily melting capacity of glass is expected to have limited room for decline in the second half, ranging from 1,650 to 3,250 tons [1] - As of late June, the total inventory of float glass enterprises reached 69.887 million heavy boxes, an increase of 54.54% from the end of last year and up 16.82% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Demand and Consumption - The core issue of weak glass demand is attributed to the sluggish real estate market, slow progress on engineering orders, and difficulties in order fulfillment and payment collection for deep processing enterprises [1] - The apparent consumption of domestic float glass from January to May was 18.6463 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, indicating that the supply-demand imbalance has not eased [1] - Although there may be a temporary improvement in demand in the second half of the year, the overall consumption is still expected to decline year-on-year [1] Group 3: Pricing and Costs - The decline in raw material prices has led to a reduction in glass production costs; however, the decrease in most process costs has not matched the drop in finished product prices, resulting in continuous losses for most processes, with only coal gasification processes showing slight profitability [1] - Without strong external factors, it is difficult for costs and profits to drive capacity exit in the second half of the year [1] - The glass futures prices are expected to remain below 1,000 yuan per ton for a long time, with the main contract center in the range of 850 to 950 yuan per ton in the second half [1] Group 4: Exports and Market Outlook - From January to May, the total export volume of domestic float glass was 379,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 126.32%; from January to April, the export volume of glass and deep processing products was 1.328 million tons, an increase of nearly 20% year-on-year [1] - The export situation in the second half of the year will be a key factor in determining the supply-demand landscape; optimistic scenarios could offset demand declines, while pessimistic scenarios could increase inventory pressure [1] - The industry is unlikely to resolve the supply-demand imbalance before significant capacity exit or positive demand growth occurs [1]