ETO Markets 市场洞察：央行宫斗升级：鲍威尔任期倒计时，贝森特密谋“影子主席”接管？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy direction is becoming a central battleground in U.S. politics and economics, influenced by President Trump's pressure for interest rate cuts and the complexities of global economic uncertainty and tariff policies [1][3]. Group 1: Pressure on the Federal Reserve - President Trump has publicly called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to between 0.5% and 1.75%, criticizing the current leadership for being slow and costing the U.S. economy "hundreds of billions" [3]. - The current policy rate is maintained at 4.25%-4.5%, significantly higher than Trump's target, with Fed officials emphasizing that policy decisions should be data-driven [4][5]. - The Fed's cautious stance is attributed to persistent inflation risks and the need to maintain its independence from political pressures [5]. Group 2: Transition Planning for Fed Leadership - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is preparing for the transition of the Fed chair position after Powell's term ends in May 2026, aiming for a smooth nomination process in late 2025 [6][8]. - Potential candidates for the Fed chair include current Fed Governor Waller, who is familiar with monetary policy frameworks [7]. - The government plans to follow traditional procedures for the nomination process, contrasting with Trump's high-profile pressure tactics [8]. Group 3: Economic Data as Decision-Making Factors - Key economic data from July to August will be critical for the Fed's decision-making, including employment reports and inflation data [10]. - If employment data indicates a cooling labor market, it may open the door for a rate cut in September [10]. - The upcoming tariff policy decisions will also significantly impact inflation expectations and the Fed's approach [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing conflict over interest rates has evolved into a broader debate about the Fed's independence, with potential implications for economic stability [11]. - If summer data supports a rate cut, tensions may ease; however, persistent inflation could exacerbate conflicts between the White House and the Fed, affecting market stability [11]. - Market participants are advised to closely monitor key economic data and Fed officials' statements for signals of policy shifts [11].