Core Viewpoint - The Chinese PE market experienced a decline in supply from June to July, followed by an increase in August due to reduced maintenance and new capacity releases, with seasonal demand expected to support inventory levels [1][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In June, the total PE supply in China (domestic + imports + recycled) was estimated at 3.8 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.46% [2]. - Domestic production saw a continued decline, with a month-on-month drop of 2.22%, influenced by maintenance shutdowns at several key plants [2]. - The supply of LDPE significantly decreased due to maintenance at major producers, while HDPE production increased as some plants shifted production [2]. - Import volumes were expected to decrease by 2.64% in June, with geopolitical factors and domestic demand expectations keeping imports at a low level in July and August [2][6]. Recycled PE Supply - The supply of recycled PE was projected to remain low at 130,000 to 160,000 tons per month during June and July due to low price differentials and seasonal demand [2]. - An increase in recycled PE supply is anticipated in August as seasonal demand begins to rise [2]. Production and Export Data - In May, China's plastic products production was 6.425 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while cumulative production from January to May was 31.65 million tons, reflecting a growth of 5.4% [6]. - Exports of PE shopping bags in May reached 113,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.12%, with cumulative exports from January to May totaling 542,500 tons, up 6.02% year-on-year [6]. Market Outlook - The second half of the year will require careful management of production and supply dynamics to navigate potential risks, particularly as oil-based PE production profitability has turned negative for some varieties [6].
6-8月PE供应先降后升 预计期末库存缓慢去化
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-01 04:54