中美博弈开始动真格了！中国抽走美债筹码，特朗普失算了

Core Insights - The turmoil triggered by U.S. Treasury bonds is causing significant disruptions in global markets, with China taking decisive actions that have caught the U.S. off guard [1] - The surge in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which rose by 50 basis points to 4.49% in just one week, marks the largest weekly increase since 2003, leading to massive sell-offs in the investment market [3] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to 57.8%, the lowest since 2000 [22] Group 1: U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - China has reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds for two consecutive months, bringing its April holdings down to $757 billion, a 40% decrease from its peak of $1.3 trillion a decade ago [8] - Canada has also significantly sold off U.S. Treasury bonds, offloading $57.8 billion in a single move, indicating a rapid exit from the market [8] - The Federal Reserve has temporarily adjusted bank capital rules to allow banks to purchase more U.S. Treasuries, aiming to stabilize the market amid rising sell-offs [14] Group 2: Global Economic Implications - The U.S. is facing a looming debt crisis, with $6.6 trillion in debt maturing by June 2025, equivalent to Germany's annual GDP [18] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing political risks and uncontrollable debt, marking the first downgrade in twenty years [20] - The combination of rising tariffs and a debt crisis is leading to increased global risk aversion, prompting investors to flee the U.S. Treasury market [12][10] Group 3: Shifts in Global Financial Landscape - The trend of using the Chinese yuan for oil transactions is increasing among Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, further promoting the de-dollarization movement [40] - The U.S. military-industrial complex is feeling the impact of these financial shifts, with critical supply chains being disrupted due to reduced access to essential materials like rare earth elements [30] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic strategies are reshaping global supply chains and financial systems, with countries like China leveraging their resources and financial tools to counter U.S. dominance [42][45]