Market Overview - Tin is a globally priced commodity, but it is considered a small commodity compared to copper and aluminum due to its limited presence in the Earth's crust [1] - The global distribution of tin resources is concentrated in China, Indonesia, Myanmar, and Australia, with limited new mines in recent years leading to low supply elasticity [1] - The supply disruptions, particularly after Myanmar's ban on tin mining in August 2023, have significantly impacted the market [1] Price Trends - In the first phase from January to early April 2025, tin prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose from 240,000 yuan/ton to a peak of 299,990 yuan/ton, marking a 25% increase due to supply disruptions from Africa and Myanmar [2] - Following this, prices fell over 13% to around 260,000 yuan/ton due to negative market sentiment and the announcement of tariffs by the U.S. [2][4] - The lowest price recorded in 2025 was 235,000 yuan/ton, influenced by the resumption of operations at the Bisie mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][4] Supply Dynamics - Myanmar is the third-largest tin producer globally, contributing 15%-20% of the total supply, with the Wa region accounting for 90% of its production [4] - After the ban on mining in Myanmar, China's tin ore imports have significantly declined, with May 2025 imports at 13,400 tons, a 36.39% month-on-month increase but a 36.51% year-on-year decrease [5] - The supply situation remains tight, with domestic smelting fees declining and production affected by raw material shortages [7] Recovery Challenges - The recovery of tin mining in Myanmar has faced delays due to various factors, including rising costs of essential materials and a decrease in ore quality [10] - The resumption of operations in Myanmar is crucial for supply recovery, but the process is slow and complicated by external factors such as natural disasters and policy changes [9][10] Demand Factors - The global semiconductor market is experiencing cyclical changes, with a slowdown in growth expected in 2025, impacting demand for tin in electronics [13] - Domestic consumption of electronic products is also weak, with smartphone shipments showing only modest growth [15] - The overall demand for tin is being suppressed by high prices and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [17] Future Outlook - The core issue in the tin market remains the supply side, with a tight supply situation expected to persist in the short term due to slow recovery in Myanmar [21] - The second half of 2025 will be critical for assessing the recovery of tin supply, particularly from Myanmar and Africa [21] - Short-term price stability is anticipated, but a downward trend may emerge as supply conditions improve [21]
矿端供应“一波三折”，下半年锡价走势将何去何从？【期市半年报】
Wen Hua Cai Jing·2025-07-01 05:58