Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-01 06:06Group 1 - Global trade growth is expected to slow down, with a projected increase of only 1.8% in 2025, while global economic growth may decelerate to 2.5% [1] - China's economy remains resilient, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5% in the first half of 2025, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies [3] - The increase in tariffs is anticipated to have a negative impact on trade in the short term, leading to a restructuring of industrial chains and changes in trade and investment flows in the long term [4] Group 2 - China's position as the largest exporter is maintained, with a projected 14.6% share of global exports in 2024, while the U.S. remains the largest importer with a 13.6% share [4] - The largest export destination for China has shifted from the U.S. to ASEAN, and Mexico has become the largest source of imports for the U.S. [4] - Chinese manufacturing is undergoing a value chain upgrade, with an increasing proportion of capital goods and intermediate goods in exports, indicating a trend towards higher value-added production [4]