美联储降息预期升温，黄金重回3300美元上方，美元创1973年来最差表现！

Core Viewpoint - The financial market is experiencing significant volatility in gold prices due to intertwined influences of Federal Reserve monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risks, with a focus on U.S. economic data, particularly employment indicators [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy Expectations - The U.S. dollar index has declined by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking the worst performance since 1973, largely due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's trade policies and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [3] - Current market expectations suggest that the U.S. will implement three interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, providing crucial support for non-yielding assets like gold [3] - Technical analysis indicates that international gold prices are stabilizing around $3,300, with a previous resistance at $3,450, while the price remains supported above the 60-day moving average [3] Group 2: Trade Uncertainty and Safe-Haven Demand - The complexity of the global trade environment enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with ongoing uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies affecting market sentiment [4] - Although recent data shows that the actual impact of tariff policies is less severe than anticipated, limited progress in trade negotiations continues to create a foundation for future monetary easing [4] - The outcome of trade agreements will be critical in shaping market sentiment, as failure to reach agreements could lead to inflationary pressures on the U.S. economy and increased uncertainty regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary easing [4]