欧央行官员警告：欧美关税僵局可能加剧通缩压力 9月或迎最后一次降息

Group 1 - The current inflation situation in the Eurozone faces multiple downward pressures, with a warning that the recent rapid rise of the euro against the dollar and energy market volatility due to Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts may cause inflation rates to deviate from the 2% target [1] - The probability of inflation remaining below the target level has exceeded the upside risks, according to the Lithuanian central bank governor [1] - Despite forecasts indicating that inflation will stabilize at 2% by 2027, current price trends remain uncertain, influenced by geopolitical risks and aggressive trade protectionism policies from the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - The likelihood of maintaining interest rates unchanged in the July meeting is the most probable policy option, aligning with market expectations [3] - Since the start of the current easing cycle in June 2024, the European Central Bank has consecutively lowered the benchmark interest rate eight times, with expectations for further rate cuts in September [3] - The average tariff rate on European goods exported to the U.S. is currently 10%, and the impact of existing trade barriers on the real economy has not yet fully manifested [3]