江苏天鼎证券投资咨询有限公司谈国际铜价仍将偏强震荡行情

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that international copper prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillating trend, with an overall upward trajectory due to supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][8] Group 2 - Supply-side constraints are evident, with slow growth in global copper mine production and significant issues related to aging mines and resource depletion, leading to tight supply [1][2] - The processing fees for copper concentrate are significantly reduced, reaching a 15-year low, which may pressure some smelters to delay production or maintenance, further reducing market supply [1][2] Group 3 - Demand remains robust, driven by the growth of the new energy sector and stable economic growth in China and the U.S., with global sales of new energy vehicles expected to increase by approximately 23.85% in 2025, resulting in an additional demand of 656,000 tons of copper [3][4] - Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and 5G are also expected to contribute to long-term growth in copper demand [4] Group 4 - Macroeconomic factors such as rising inflation expectations, warming interest rate cut expectations, and a slight decline in the U.S. dollar index are favorable for maintaining a strong oscillating trend in copper prices [5] - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have raised their copper price forecasts, predicting a price range of $9,890 to $11,500 per ton in the second half of 2025, with some forecasts even optimistic about prices exceeding $12,000 per ton in 2026 [5] Group 5 - Recent market sentiment shows copper prices oscillating upward, with spot premiums rising, although there is cautious willingness to purchase at high prices, leading to increased short-term volatility [6] Group 6 - Overall, the international copper price is expected to continue a strong oscillating trend, maintaining high levels while awaiting macroeconomic policy and economic stabilization to provide new upward momentum [8]