步履蹒跚！欧盟对俄罗斯液化天然气出口实施制裁后迫使其调整航运

Core Insights - The report by the Center for Energy and Clean Air Research (CREA) highlights Russia's attempt to shift its LNG export routes to domestic waters following the EU's transshipment ban in March 2025, revealing a critical weakness in its energy strategy [1][2] - Despite claims of steady progress on the flagship "Arctic LNG-2" project, the report indicates that logistical challenges and reliance on Western-controlled infrastructure are becoming increasingly apparent [1][3] Group 1: Logistics and Infrastructure - Russia has centralized all transshipment activities at the Murmansk port, with 100% of LNG transshipments occurring domestically from January to May 2025, marking a significant geographical shift [3] - Although ship-to-ship (STS) transshipments only decreased by 8%, the overall transshipment volume dropped by 46%, indicating that Murmansk's facilities cannot match those of European ports [3][5] - The logistics system relies heavily on 15 Arc-7 class LNG carriers, which are crucial for Arctic conditions, but ownership and operational control are distributed among entities from G7 countries, exposing Russia's dependence on Western financial and legal systems [3][5] Group 2: Arctic LNG-2 Project - The "Arctic LNG-2" project, led by Russian gas producer Novatek, continues to progress despite foreign asset freezes and ongoing Western sanctions, with plans to increase annual production capacity to 19.8 million tons through three production lines [8][10] - Analysts warn that sanctions may delay the full construction of "Arctic LNG-2" and limit Russia's ability to deliver LNG to major Asian markets, despite officials asserting that the first production line will be completed as planned [10]