每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-07-01）

Group 1: Federal Reserve Predictions - Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September instead of December, citing lower-than-expected inflation impacts from tariffs [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts three rate cuts of 25 basis points each in September, October, and December, adjusting the terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25% [1] - Morgan Stanley analysts believe the likelihood of rate cuts in the upcoming meetings remains low, with most Fed officials supporting a cautious stance [2] Group 2: Corporate Profitability and Tariffs - Goldman Sachs highlights that U.S. corporate profit margins will face significant challenges in the upcoming earnings season due to the direct impact of tariffs, which have increased costs by approximately 10 percentage points since the beginning of the year [1] - The report indicates that while most of the increased costs are expected to be passed on to customers, if companies are forced to absorb higher-than-expected costs, profit margins will be under pressure [1] Group 3: Currency and Economic Data - Analysts from Deutsche Bank suggest that the outlook for the U.S. dollar depends on the underlying reasons for rate cut expectations, with potential short-term rebounds if inflation impacts from tariffs are limited [3] - Dutch International Group anticipates that upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the non-farm payroll report, may provide support for the dollar index, limiting its decline [4] Group 4: Commodity Prices and Market Trends - CITIC Securities maintains a bullish outlook for copper prices, predicting they will rise to $10,000-$11,000 per ton in the second half of the year, supported by stable economic growth in China and the U.S. [6] - The report emphasizes that the copper market remains tight, with limited upstream production and a need for further macroeconomic policy support to sustain price increases [6] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Baosheng Group suggests that while the U.S. stock market presents unique opportunities, diversifying investments into Europe, China, and India may yield better value and risk-adjusted returns [5] - The report highlights the attractiveness of U.S. corporate sectors, particularly selected tech stocks, defensive stocks, and high-dividend stocks [5]