小摩下半年首选股票新鲜出炉！当前的中国股市类似27年前的日本，有上行空间

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's China Index (MXCN) is expected to fluctuate between 70-80 in the near term, with potential upside in the second half of 2025, predicting MXCN to reach 80 and the CSI 300 to reach 4,150 by the end of 2025, representing increases of 5.1% and 5.8% respectively from last Friday's closing prices [1][2] Group 1: Earnings Outlook and Industry Weighting - MXCN's EPS is anticipated to have upside potential exceeding consensus, while the consensus EPS growth forecasts for CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are expected to face downside risks due to their heavier exposure to real estate and overcapacity sectors [3] - Morgan Stanley has resumed overweighting in Information Technology (IT) after a pause, while continuing to overweight Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, and Materials, and underweighting Energy and Utilities [3] Group 2: Preferred Themes and Stocks - The shift from "affordable enjoyment" to "affordable experience" highlights the relative value of sectors like education and family entertainment, which have outperformed since February 2025 [4] - High dividend stocks remain favored by domestic investors seeking higher yields in a low-risk interest rate environment [5] - Preferred stocks for the second half of 2025 include Tencent and Tencent Music in Communication Services, Alibaba and MGM China in Consumer Discretionary, Futu Holdings and Huatai Securities in Financials, and several others across various sectors [6][8] Group 3: Market Scenarios and EPS Projections - In the base case scenario, MXCN is projected to reach 80, with a consensus EPS growth of 6% year-on-year for 2025, while optimistic scenarios could see it rise to 89, driven by favorable global liquidity and a supportive policy environment for private enterprises [10][11] - The pessimistic scenario considers heightened market competition and potential overcapacity, which could negatively impact EPS consensus [11] - The consensus EPS for MXCN is currently stable at HKD 6.2, with potential upside risks due to increasing applications of artificial intelligence [11][12]