Core Viewpoint - The retail price of refined oil in China is expected to increase due to fluctuating international crude oil prices influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with specific price adjustments set for July 1 [2][3]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - As of June 30, the reference crude oil price change rate was 5.41%, leading to an expected increase of 235 yuan per ton for gasoline and 225 yuan per ton for diesel, translating to an increase of 0.18 yuan, 0.19 yuan, and 0.19 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 95-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel respectively [2]. - After the upcoming price adjustment, the national standard price for 92-octane gasoline in Zibo will rise from 7.14 yuan per liter to approximately 7.32 yuan per liter, while 95-octane gasoline will increase from 7.66 yuan per liter to around 7.85 yuan per liter [3]. Group 2: Cost Implications - For a typical family car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up with 92-octane gasoline will cost an additional 9 yuan. For a small private car running 2,000 kilometers per month with an 8L/100km fuel consumption, the total fuel cost will increase by about 13 yuan before the next price adjustment window [3]. - In the logistics sector, a heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers per month with a fuel consumption of 38L/100km will see an increase in fuel costs of approximately 337 yuan before the next price adjustment window [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term oil prices are expected to remain volatile, primarily influenced by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with a focus on US-Iran negotiations. However, unless a significant conflict arises, oil prices are unlikely to return to previous highs [3]. - Following a decrease in geopolitical risks, oil prices have returned to levels prior to the conflicts, but summer demand in the US is expected to provide support for prices, indicating that international oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the upcoming period [3]. Group 4: Future Price Adjustment Schedule - The next price adjustment window for refined oil will open on July 15, 2025, at 24:00 [4].
油价或迎“三连涨”,淄博车主出行成本再度增加