本周非农将引发新一轮美元抛售？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to have a significant impact on the direction of the US dollar, with a potential for a stronger euro and other non-USD currencies if the data is weak [1][2][4] - Citigroup's global foreign exchange strategy team predicts that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.4% with only 85,000 new jobs added, which could trigger widespread selling of the dollar [1][5] - The report indicates that even if the non-farm data is weak, the dollar's decline may be limited due to high expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and pre-existing short positions on the dollar by leveraged funds [1][7] Group 2 - Citigroup maintains a bearish outlook on the dollar, emphasizing that the current market environment presents ongoing asymmetric risks for the dollar [2][4] - The report suggests that if the non-farm data aligns with Citigroup's predictions, the market's pricing for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve could increase significantly, potentially reaching a 50% probability [5][6] - The euro-to-dollar exchange rate is unlikely to break the 1.20 level without additional catalysts, as the unemployment rate is expected to rise and non-farm employment growth is projected to slow [6][9] Group 3 - Key factors limiting the euro's rise include the high threshold for a July rate cut by the Federal Reserve, market positioning with increased dollar short positions, and the upcoming Independence Day holiday which may lead to profit-taking [7][9] - Citigroup believes that for the euro to stabilize above 1.20, clearer signals are needed, such as the unemployment rate approaching 5% by year-end or adjustments in foreign exchange hedging ratios due to lower hedging costs [9]