Group 1 - The report from the Bank of China Research Institute indicates that the pressure for RMB depreciation has significantly eased, and the exchange rate is expected to remain stable at a reasonable equilibrium level in the second half of 2025 [1] - In the first half of 2025, the RMB faced significant depreciation pressure due to factors such as the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, but after high-level economic talks between China and the US, the RMB appreciated against the USD [1] - As of June 25, the RMB's central parity, onshore spot, and offshore spot exchange rates have converged around 7.17, indicating a reduction in the divergence between onshore and offshore rates [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the capital market recovery has accelerated the inflow of foreign capital, which positively contributes to the stability of the RMB exchange rate [2] - Since October of the previous year, the trading volume of the Stock Connect (where Hong Kong or foreign capital purchases A-shares) has significantly exceeded previous levels, and this trend is expected to continue [2] - The anticipated inflow of foreign capital is expected to support the balance of international payments and the stability of the exchange rate [2]
中行报告：人民币汇率贬值压力明显缓解