Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid expansion of stablecoins globally, particularly USDT and USDC, and raises the question of whether China should develop its own stablecoin amidst the global digital currency wave [2][3] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for stablecoins to reshape traditional payment systems and the challenges they pose to financial regulation [2][3] Market Overview - The global stablecoin market has grown from under $5 billion in early 2020 to approximately $250 billion, with dollar-pegged stablecoins making up 99% of this market [3] - USDT accounts for about 70% of the dollar stablecoin market, followed by USDC, indicating a high concentration in the stablecoin market compared to traditional finance [3] Opportunities - Stablecoins offer significant advantages in cross-border payment efficiency, enabling instant settlements and reducing transaction times [3][4] - The cost of cross-border transactions using stablecoins can be over 90% lower than traditional financial systems, primarily due to the elimination of various regulatory and operational costs [4] Challenges - The widespread use of stablecoins may challenge monetary policy transmission mechanisms and increase financial stability risks, particularly if issuers mismanage reserves [5] - The dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins raises concerns about "dollarization" and its potential impact on emerging market economies [5] Issuance Models - Stablecoin issuance can be categorized into three models: privately issued stablecoins (e.g., USDT, USDC), bank deposit tokens (e.g., JP.M Coin), and a "wholesale-retail" dual-layer system supported by central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) [6][7] - The "wholesale-retail" model allows for regulatory oversight and maintains the integrity of the existing financial system while providing a framework for stablecoin issuance [7][8] Regulatory Considerations - The article suggests that China should carefully evaluate the implications of issuing a stablecoin, considering its unique financial system and the need for effective regulation [10][12] - The potential for offshore RMB stablecoins is highlighted, with caution advised regarding interest rate differentials that could lead to arbitrage risks [12] Global Context - The article notes that the focus on retail cross-border payments may overlook the importance of wholesale payments, which are crucial for the international monetary system [13] - The "wholesale-retail" dual-layer system is presented as a comprehensive approach to reforming the global cross-border payment system, balancing the needs of both wholesale and retail transactions [13]
赵鹞：稳定币热潮下的新思考
3 6 Ke·2025-07-01 12:08