【立方债市通】上半年债市发债规模超27万亿元/周口投资集团拟发债36亿元/机构展望下半年债券市场

Group 1: Bond Market Overview - The total bond issuance in the market reached 27.29 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of nearly 24% [1] - Among the total, government bonds accounted for 16.93 trillion yuan, while credit bonds totaled 10.35 trillion yuan [1] - Specific figures include 7.88 trillion yuan in national bonds, 5.49 trillion yuan in local bonds, 55 billion yuan in central bank bills, and 349.68 billion yuan in policy financial bonds, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 35.58%, 57.18%, and 19.23% for national, local, and policy financial bonds [1] Group 2: ABS Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the ABS market saw 1,090 new projects with a total issuance of 974.9 billion yuan, marking a 27% increase year-on-year [3] - Credit ABS issuance decreased by 23%, with 102 new projects totaling 95.9 billion yuan [3] - The largest issuance came from non-performing loans, with 80 projects amounting to 36.2 billion yuan, followed by personal auto loans with 10 projects totaling 34.3 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Government Bond Issuance Plans - The Ministry of Finance plans to reissue 240 billion yuan of book-entry interest-bearing government bonds, including 109 billion yuan of 7-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.79% and 131 billion yuan of 10-year bonds at a coupon rate of 1.67% [5] Group 4: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 1.31 trillion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4.065 trillion yuan in reverse repos [7] Group 5: Local Government Bond Issuance - Hunan Province successfully issued its third batch of special bonds, totaling 9.856 billion yuan, with a cumulative issuance of 23.854 billion yuan for land reserve special bonds, accounting for 44.56% of construction project funding [8] Group 6: Corporate Bond Issuance - Zhoukou Investment Group plans to issue 3.593 billion yuan in corporate bonds, which has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [9] - The Zhumadian Urban Construction Investment Group completed the issuance of 400 million yuan in corporate bonds with a 2.72% interest rate [9] - Tailong Pharmaceutical intends to register 800 million yuan in short-term financing bonds to replace bank loans and supplement working capital [10] Group 7: Market Sentiment and Predictions - The West Fixed Income team predicts that credit bond yields are likely to remain volatile, with the interest rate spread expected to reach its lowest point in the third quarter [20] - The Hua'an Fixed Income team anticipates that August may see a peak in the supply of interest rate bonds, with a significant reduction in supply pressure in July [20]