监管松绑预期升温，华尔街"聪明钱"十年来最大规模押注银行股

Core Viewpoint - Hedge funds are making the largest bets on U.S. bank stocks in nearly a decade, driving financial stocks to record highs, fueled by optimism around interest rate cuts and favorable stress test results from the Federal Reserve [1][4]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Activity - Hedge funds' net purchases of bank stocks reached the highest level in nearly ten years, indicating strong confidence from institutional investors in the sector's outlook [4]. - Analysts from UBS and Bank of America predict further increases in bank stocks, with the latter stating that the Federal Reserve's stress test results will provide a significant boost to the sector [4][5]. Group 2: Regulatory Changes - Anticipated regulatory relaxations, including easing capital and leverage requirements, are expected to be key catalysts for stock price increases, allowing banks to manage their loan portfolios more aggressively [3][5]. - Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets views the U.S. financial sector as one of the most promising globally, suggesting that relaxed capital requirements will enhance profitability for banks [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The KBW Bank Index has rebounded over 30% from its April lows, although it remains 5.4% below its peak in 2022 [6]. - Despite a forecast of limited growth in the financial sector after nine consecutive quarters of profit expansion, the options market shows optimism, with the call-put ratio for the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) hovering near a four-month high [8]. Group 4: Earnings Outlook - Major banks like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are set to report quarterly earnings on July 15, marking the beginning of a new earnings season, although growth is expected to be weak or flat [8]. - Market interest in the upside potential of bank stocks is driven by regulatory easing and the sector's low implied volatility [9].