Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has assigned a "neutral" rating to Circle Internet Group with a 12-month target price of $83, indicating approximately 50% downside potential from the current price [1][2][5]. Company Overview - Circle, the first publicly traded stablecoin company, saw its stock price surge to $138.57 shortly after its June 5 listing, representing a cumulative increase of 347% from the initial offering price of $31 [1][4]. - The stock reached an all-time high of $298.99 on June 23 but subsequently experienced a decline of nearly 40% over the following four trading days, closing at $181.29 on June 30 [1][4]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Goldman Sachs' target price is based on a 60x earnings multiple, while Circle's current static P/E ratio stands at 544x, indicating a significant overvaluation [2][5]. - Many institutional investors have begun to take profits, with Cathie Wood's ARK fund reportedly cashing out approximately 1.56 million shares valued at $243 million [2][8]. Market Position and Growth Potential - Circle's USDC stablecoin has a circulation of over $61 billion, growing at a rate of 40% last year, significantly outpacing Tether's 10% growth [4][9]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40% for USDC supply from 2024 to 2027, with Circle's revenue and adjusted EPS expected to grow at CAGRs of 26% and 37%, respectively [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - Circle's main advantage over Tether is its compliance and transparency, especially with the upcoming implementation of the GENIUS Act, which may enhance the market for compliant stablecoins [4][6]. - The partnership with Binance is expected to drive USDC growth, as Binance has economic incentives to promote USDC, unlike Tether [9][10]. Risks and Challenges - The potential for declining cryptocurrency prices could suppress trading activity and slow USDC growth, while rising interest rates may also impact Circle's revenue [6][7]. - Regulatory challenges could arise if USDC is classified as a security, leading to increased operational costs [6][7].
稳定币第一股高位回落近40%！华尔街看衰估值，热钱开始套现