（来源：吴说） 作者：Frank @IOSG 链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ujzqy-tLNyqaTQNZNIYKRA Circle vs Tether：2026 全面开战 2025 年 12 月 12 日，Circle 获得美国货币监理署（OCC）的有条件批准，成立国家信托银行—— 第一国家数字货币银行（First National Digital Currency Bank ）。一旦获得全面批准，这一关键里程碑将为全球顶级机构提供受托的数字资产托管服务，助力稳定币市值在三年内加速增长至 1.2 万亿美元 。凭 借这一发展势头，Circle 在 2025 年成功上市，加上 USDC 流通速度的加快，使其成为与机构投资者联系最紧密的稳定币发行商。截至目前，其估值已达 到 230 亿美元。 ▲ Source: IOSG Ventures 尽管稳定币市场领导者 Tether 仍然保持超过 130 亿美元的高盈利能力，但其母公司面临持续的商业信誉与监管压力，例如近期 S&P 把 Tether 的储备评级 从"强"下调到"弱"，尤文图斯足球俱乐部拒绝了其收购要约。11 月 29 日，中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Circle Internet Group, Inc. (NYSE:CRCL) is a leading entity in the financial services sector, recognized for its innovative strategies in digital currency and blockchain technology, and has shown strong financial performance [1] Financial Performance - CRCL has a notable earnings surprise history, with an average surprise of 235.86% over the last two quarters, indicating consistent outperformance against earnings estimates [2][6] - In the most recent quarter, CRCL reported earnings of $0.64 per share, exceeding the expected $0.20 per share, resulting in a 220% surprise [3] - In the previous quarter, CRCL reported $1.02 per share against an expected $0.29, marking a 251.72% surprise [3] Market Outlook - Dan Dolev from Mizuho Securities has set a price target of $77 for CRCL, suggesting a potential price increase of approximately 10.06% from its current price of $69.96 [2][6] - CRCL's market capitalization is approximately $17.8 billion, with stock fluctuations between a low of $67.50 and a high of $70.54, reflecting a decrease of 1.33% or $0.94 [5] Industry Context - The crypto industry is currently facing challenges, particularly in Washington, with delays in legislative processes impacting the sector [4] - Despite these challenges, CRCL is well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak due to its strong financial performance and innovative approach [4][6] Upcoming Events - CRCL is scheduled to announce its financial results for the fourth quarter and the full fiscal year of 2025 on February 25, 2026, and will host a live audio webcast to discuss these outcomes [5]

ARK Invest 上周五合计买入约 2150 万美元的 Coinbase（COIN）、Circle Internet（CRCL） 和 Bullish （BLSH） 股票，这是其自去年 12 月中旬以来首次同时买入上述三家公司。其中，ARK 买入 12.94 万 股 Circle（约 920 万美元）、4.22 万股 Coinbase（约 915 万美元）以及 8.85 万股 Bullish（约 317 万美 元）。ARK 一贯采取"逢跌买入"策略，上周比特币周跌幅接近 6%。（CoinDesk） （来源：吴说） ...

Ark Invest bought a total of $21.5 million worth of shares in Coinbase (COIN), Circle Internet (CRCL) and Bullish (BLSH) on Friday, the company's first purchases of the stocks since mid-December. The Cathie Wood-led investment manager added to its holdings in the three companies in its Innovation (ARKK) and Blockchain and Fintech Innovation (ARKF) exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to an emailed disclosure. Ark added 129,446 shares of stablecoin developer Circle, worth $9.2 million based on Friday' ...

Core Insights - Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) is positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, having achieved an average surprise of 235.86% over the last two quarters [1][5] Earnings Performance - For the most recent quarter, Circle Internet Group reported earnings of $0.64 per share, exceeding the expected $0.20 per share, resulting in a surprise of 220.00% [2] - In the previous quarter, the company reported $1.02 per share against an expectation of $0.29 per share, leading to a surprise of 251.72% [2] Earnings Estimates and Predictions - Recent estimates for Circle Internet Group have been increasing, with a positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) indicating a strong potential for another earnings beat [5][8] - The current Earnings ESP for the company is +0.51%, suggesting analysts are optimistic about its near-term earnings potential [8] Zacks Rank and Predictive Power - Circle Internet Group holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), which, when combined with a positive Earnings ESP, indicates a high likelihood of beating consensus estimates [6][8] - Stocks with a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 3 or better have historically produced positive surprises nearly 70% of the time [6]

Core Insights - Circle Foundation has announced its first international grant to support the UN's Digital Hub of Treasury Solutions (DHoTS), aimed at improving monetary value transfers across the UN system [1][2] - The DHoTS initiative, launched in 2021 by UNHCR, has expanded to include 15 UN agencies and focuses on creating an integrated Financial Gateway to enhance financial resilience [2][4] - The partnership aims to modernize humanitarian finance by integrating digital financial infrastructure, including regulated stablecoins, to improve efficiency and accountability in aid distribution [3][5] Group 1: Circle Foundation and DHoTS - Circle Foundation's grant builds on previous collaborations with UNHCR, particularly in pioneering USDC-based aid payouts for displaced Ukrainians [2][4] - The initiative is expected to unlock recurring savings and strengthen trust in global aid through enhanced transparency and accountability [3][4] - The global humanitarian aid system currently moves $38 billion annually but relies on outdated financial systems, which DHoTS aims to modernize [6] Group 2: Benefits of Digital Financial Infrastructure - The integration of digital financial infrastructure is projected to reduce costs and delays associated with traditional banking methods [9] - The use of regulated stablecoins for program payments is anticipated to improve transparency and build more inclusive financial systems [5][6] - DHoTS will enable near-instant cross-border transfers and automate manual processes, easing operational burdens for UN agencies [9]

Core Viewpoint - Circle Internet Group, Inc. (CRCL) is identified as a potential investment opportunity following a hot IPO cooling off after the lockup expiration while the business continues to perform well [1] Group 1 - The article suggests that one of the optimal times to buy a stock is after the initial public offering (IPO) lockup period ends, particularly when the underlying business remains strong [1] - Stone Fox Capital is mentioned as a registered investment advisor (RIA) based in Oklahoma, led by Mark Holder, who has extensive experience in investing and portfolio management [1] - The investing group "Out Fox The Street" is highlighted for providing stock picks and research aimed at identifying potential multibaggers while managing portfolio risk through diversification [1]

Group 1: Trade Tariffs and Economic Impact - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned European countries against retaliating against U.S. trade tariffs related to the Greenland crisis, emphasizing the need for countries to adhere to their trade agreements [1][3] - President Trump has threatened to impose a 10% tariff on imports from several European countries starting February 1, increasing to 25% by June 1, which has caused concern among European nations [2] - Bessent noted that the current situation is reminiscent of the panic experienced during the initial tariff announcements on April 2, 2025, and urged countries to avoid escalating tensions with the U.S. [2][4] Group 2: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - The tariff war initiated by Trump has negatively impacted global stock markets, particularly affecting crypto equities, which have struggled to recover compared to tech stocks [4][5] - Tech stocks like Nvidia and Tesla have remained stable in price over the past three months, while crypto-related stocks, such as Michael Saylor's Strategy, have seen a decline of approximately 40% during the same period [5] - Circle Internet Group, a major player in the stablecoin market, has also experienced a similar decline of around 40% over the last three months [6]

Group 1 - Bitcoin-related stocks experienced a widespread decline before the US stock market opened on Tuesday, with Bitcoin dropping below the $91,000 mark, reaching a low of $90,679 [1] - Strategy (MSTR.US) fell over 5%, while Coinbase (COIN.US) and Circle (CRCL.US) both dropped more than 4%, and Mara Holdings (MARA.US) decreased by over 4.7%, with IREN Ltd (IREN.US) declining more than 6% [1]

Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. tech index futures are under pressure due to concerns over President Trump's failed attempt to acquire Greenland and potential mutual tariffs with European nations, leading to a 2% decline in the Invesco QQQ Trust Series in pre-market trading [1] - Bitcoin has fallen to $90,000, down 8% from its recent high, negatively impacting crypto-related equities such as Strategy (MSTR), Galaxy Digital (GLXY), and IREN (IREN), which are down 6% to $164, 8% to $32, and 8% to $53 respectively [3] - The DXY index, which measures dollar strength against major currencies, has decreased by 0.5% to 98.5 [5] Group 2: Commodity Performance - Gold is trading above $4,700 per ounce, reflecting a 9% increase year to date, while silver has surpassed $95 per ounce, showing a 32% rise in the same period [4] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - U.S. Treasury yields have risen, and Japanese long-dated bonds are under pressure, with yields on Japan's 30-year government bonds surging close to 4%, indicating stress in the global bond market [4]