国内油价三连涨，加满一箱油将多花9元左右

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in domestic fuel prices reflects ongoing volatility in international oil markets, with expectations of a potential decrease in the next pricing cycle due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1][6]. Price Adjustment Summary - As of July 1, 2025, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will increase by 235 yuan and 225 yuan per ton, respectively, marking the sixth price increase of the year and the first consecutive three increases [2][3]. - The average reference price for crude oil was reported at 70.61 USD per barrel, with a change rate of 4.74% [2]. - Following the latest adjustment, the retail prices for 92-octane gasoline will range between 7.5 and 7.6 yuan per liter, while diesel prices will be between 7.1 and 7.3 yuan per liter [2]. Impact on Consumers and Logistics - For an average private car with a 50L fuel tank, filling up will cost approximately 9 yuan more, while logistics vehicles carrying 50 tons will see an increase of about 7.6 yuan per 100 kilometers driven [3]. - Consumers using a small car with an average fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers will incur an additional cost of 13 yuan before the next price adjustment [3]. International Oil Price Trends - The recent pricing cycle experienced significant fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, with oil prices initially rising due to concerns over supply disruptions, followed by a sharp decline after a ceasefire agreement [4][6]. - Analysts suggest that while the geopolitical situation has stabilized, uncertainties remain, and the market is cautious about making bold predictions [4]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict a high probability of a price decrease in the next adjustment cycle, with estimates suggesting a potential reduction of 290 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [6]. - The upcoming pricing window is expected to open on July 15, 2025, with market conditions indicating a likely negative change rate at the start of the new cycle [6]. Market Dynamics - Attention is shifting towards OPEC+ and their potential production increases, which could influence future oil supply and demand dynamics [5]. - The performance of major Chinese oil companies, referred to as the "three barrels of oil," has been closely tied to international oil price movements, with recent stock fluctuations reflecting geopolitical developments [7].