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Is Chevron's 4.8% Dividend Yield Enough to Drive a Buy?
ChevronChevron(US:CVX) ZACKSยท2025-07-01 14:01

Core Viewpoint - Chevron Corporation (CVX) is recognized for its strong dividend history, having increased its payout for 38 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 4.8%, outperforming ExxonMobil's (XOM) 3.7% and Shell's (SHEL) 4.1% [1][8]. Dividend Strength - Chevron's dividend is considered one of the most reliable in the energy sector, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 6% for the past five years and a total of $27 billion returned to shareholders in 2024, including $3 billion in dividends [5][6]. - The company has maintained a high payout ratio of 74%, raising concerns about the sustainability of its dividend, especially if energy markets remain under pressure [3][6]. Earnings Outlook - Chevron's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to decline by 32% in 2025 due to lower commodity prices and other factors, but a rebound of 27% is projected for 2026, driven by increased output from key projects [10][12]. - The reliance on short-cycle assets like the Permian may lead to increased earnings volatility compared to competitors [11]. Stock Performance - Chevron's stock has underperformed, with a decline of 2.5% over the past three years, contrasting with ExxonMobil's 23% and Shell's 36% gains [8][12]. - The company's recent challenges include the loss of Venezuelan production and concerns related to the Hess arbitration, which have contributed to its lagging performance [12]. Conclusion - While Chevron offers a dependable dividend backed by a strong balance sheet, the near-term decline in EPS and high payout ratio indicate potential risks. The anticipated earnings recovery in 2026 provides some optimism, but challenges remain [16][17].