Goldman Shares Skyrocket to All-Time High: Here's What's Behind It

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs Group (GS) shares reached an all-time high of $714.30 after passing the 2025 Federal Reserve stress test, allowing for capital returns to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases [1][11]. Financial Performance - The 2025 stress test simulated a severe recession with a 10% unemployment rate, a 33% drop in home prices, and a 50% decline in equity markets, resulting in aggregate simulated losses exceeding $550 billion; however, banks remained well-capitalized with CET1 ratios significantly above the 4.5% minimum [2]. - Goldman Sachs' projected CET1 capital ratio is 12.3%, indicating strong capital reserves to absorb potential losses during a recession [3]. Capital Distribution - GS currently offers a 1.7% dividend yield with a payout ratio of 28%. In July 2024, the quarterly dividend was raised by 9.1% to $3 per share, with expectations for another increase this year due to strong capital position [3]. - The board approved a share repurchase program for up to $40 billion in Q1 2025, in addition to a previously announced $30 billion program with no expiration date. As of the end of Q1 2025, GS had $43.6 billion in shares available for repurchase [4]. Liquidity Position - As of March 31, 2025, GS had cash and cash equivalents totaling $167 billion, with $71 billion in near-term borrowings, indicating strong liquidity to support shareholder returns [5]. Peer Comparison - Other banks, including JPMorgan and Bank of America, also passed the 2025 stress test, with JPMorgan's CET1 ratio at 14.2% and Bank of America's at 10.2%, both well above the required minimum [6]. - Bank of America offers a 2.20% dividend yield, while JPMorgan has a yield of 1.93%. Both banks have also announced significant dividend increases and share repurchase programs, reflecting their strong capital positions [7][8]. Stock Performance and Valuation - GS shares have increased by 24.8% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 19.2% [9]. - The stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14.99X, above the industry average of 14.72X, with solid earnings growth expectations [11][13]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for GS's earnings implies year-over-year growth of 8.8% for 2025 and 14.1% for 2026, with sales expected to increase by 3.3% and 5.9%, respectively [15].