Plenty of Data to Start 2nd Half of 2025

Economic and Market Overview - The first half of 2025 ended with major stock market indexes at record highs, but early trading in the second half is showing a pullback due to ongoing uncertainties [1] - A significant tax bill, referred to as the "Big Beautiful Bill," is expected to pass, which would make corporate tax cuts permanent, potentially adding over $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade [2] - Trade negotiations are ongoing, with the EU and Japan in detailed talks with the U.S., while a preliminary outline of a trade deal with the UK has been reached [3] Employment and Labor Market - Employment numbers are anticipated to show a slight recovery, with private-sector payrolls expected to reach around 100K and nonfarm payrolls estimated at 110K, which would offset retiring Baby Boomers [4] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates, potentially benefiting industries like housing [5] Market Data and Indicators - Key economic data to be released includes final S&P and ISM Manufacturing PMI for June, Construction Spending for May, and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May, with construction spending projected to improve slightly [6] - JOLTS data is expected to show a slight decline in job openings to 7.3 million, down from 7.39 million in April, indicating a significant drop from the peak levels earlier in the year [7] - The Professional & Business Services sector is experiencing a discrepancy, with a reported increase in job openings despite a loss of positions in the previous month, suggesting potential shifts in business spending [8]