从历史上看，私人机构数据在美国经济分析中的角色由来已久。在20世纪30年代现代官方统计体系建立 之前，市场本就依赖企业与机构自行收集的信息来观察经济变化。比如，1951年，世界大型企业联合会 就已创建招聘广告指数衡量劳动力需求，而劳工统计局直到2000年才开始发布职位空缺数据。 随着数字化进程加速，企业能够收集的数据规模远超以往，数据处理技术与计算能力也进一步提升。彼 得森国际经济研究所高级研究员杰德.科尔科(Jed Kolko)指出，这种技术与数据环境的变化，正在不断强 化私人数据在宏观研究中的价值。 最先受到关注的是薪资处理公司ADP公布的月度就业报告。数据显示，上月美国私营部门仅新增2.2万 个就业岗位，表现明显疲弱。与此同时，ADP还对2024年和2025年的就业历史估计进行了大幅下调。 除ADP外，分析人士还密切跟了踪劳动力数据公司Revelio Labs的就业指标、招聘网站Indeed发布的职 位空缺数据，以及薪资服务商Paychex提供的小企业就业指数等多项私人信息来源。 通常情况下，华尔街将这些数据视为对官方数据的前瞻性信号。 不过，近年来，这些替代性数据的重要性正持续上升。去年秋季持续六周的 ...

周三（2月4日）美股盘前，美国自动数据处理公司（ADP）发布的数据显示，1月私营部门仅增加2.2万个就业岗位，低于市场先前预期 的4.8万个，去年12月时增加了3.7万个。 最新发布的"小非农"低于预期，显示2026年伊始美国劳动力市场持续放缓。 按企业规模分类，小型企业（1-49人）就业人数较上月相比几乎不变，中型企业（50-499人）增加4.1万人，大型企业（500人以上）减 少1.8万人。 ADP报告写道，在招聘乏善可陈的一个月里，健康服务行业表现突出。引领放缓的是制造业、专业/商业服务行业，以及大型企业。 报告特别提到，制造业自2024年3月以来每月都有工作岗位流失。ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示："过去两年的低增长一直让我 保持警惕，而招聘路径如此狭窄也令人担忧。" 尽管近几个月美国就业出现了一些企稳迹象，但弱于预期的私营部门就业增长表明，1月劳动力市场仍在降温。 富国银行高级经济学家Sarah House表示："我认为数据中确实有一些企稳迹象。今天看到的是一幅相当停滞的劳动力市场图景。招聘没 有明显变得更糟，但也没有明显改善。" 近期多家大型企业宣布了裁员计划，包括陶氏公司和 ...

Pre-market futures are off their lows from the very early morning, with fresh Q4 earnings reports and private-sector jobs numbers giving something of a jolt to market indexes. Interestingly, this jolt has sent the small-cap Russell 2000 up but the tech-heavy Nasdaq down. The Dow is +142 points, the S&P 500 +10, the Nasdaq -66 and the Russell +12 points.Private Sector Payrolls Only Half of EstimatesPrivate-sector payrolls for January have been reported this morning by Automated Data Processing (ADP) , just l ...

Key Takeaways ADP Private-Sector Payrolls Brought Only 22K New JobsNon-farm Payrolls Friday Are Expected 60K (If They Come Out)LLY, ABBV, NVS and PSX All Report Good Q4 EarningsWednesday, February 4th, 2026Pre-market futures are off their lows from the very early morning, with fresh Q4 earnings reports and private-sector jobs numbers giving something of a jolt to market indexes. Interestingly, this jolt has sent the small-cap Russell 2000 up but the tech-heavy Nasdaq down. The Dow is +142 points, the S&P 50 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） ADP首席经济学家Nela Richardson表示，2025年美国新增就业岗位数量有所减少。 ...

Private sector hiring started 2026 practically stuck in neutral, according to a new report, with companies adding only 22,000 jobs in January. The report Wednesday from the payroll processing firm ADP showed that the jobs market sluggishness that defined the end of 2025 continued into this year. Total jobs growth would have been negative if it weren't for 74,000 jobs added in the education and health services sector, according to the ADP report. Manufacturing has lost jobs every month for almost two years ...

ROSELAND, N.J., Feb. 4, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Private sector employment increased by 22,000 jobs in January and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year according to the January ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab"). Continue Reading ADP Research (PRNewsfoto/ADP, Inc.) The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure of the labor market based on the anonymized weekly payroll data of more than 26 million privat ...

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASDAQ:ADP) is one of the stocks Jim Cramer shed light on recently. Cramer called the company’s results “confusing,” as he commented: Fourth, we got really confusing results from Automatic Data, ADP, America’s top payroll processor. On Wednesday, the stock went down 1.5%. When you zoom out, this was just the latest leg lower for ADP, which is now off more than 25% from its highs last year. And this is a really good company. What’s weird about this one is the fact that the ...

Core Insights - Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP) is recognized as one of the Dividend Growth Stocks: 25 Aristocrats [1] - TD Cowen has reduced its price target for ADP from $263 to $255 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing strong performance in Employer Services but caution due to weaker results in the PEO segment and broader sector pressures [2] - Despite a better-than-expected quarter, ADP's cautious outlook is influenced by mixed labor market conditions, with limited layoffs but noticeable hiring slowdowns [3][4] Financial Performance - ADP reported second-quarter revenue of $5.36 billion, slightly exceeding analyst expectations of $5.34 billion, with adjusted earnings of $2.62 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.57 [3] - The company has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast to approximately 6%, aligning with the upper end of its previous guidance [4] Business Segments - ADP operates through two main segments: Employer Services and Professional Employer Organization, providing cloud-based human capital management solutions [5] - The U.S. pay-per-control metric, indicating the number of employees on client payrolls, increased by 1% year-over-year, consistent with recent trends [4]

Group 1 - The individual has a master's degree in Analytics and a bachelor's degree in Accounting, with over 10 years of experience in the investment sector, progressing from analyst to management roles [1] - The individual has a personal interest in dividend investing and aims to share insights with the Seeking Alpha community [1] Group 2 - The individual holds long positions in shares of PAYX, NKE, ADP, TROW, and MKC through various financial instruments [2] - The article reflects the author's personal opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company mentioned [2]