油脂市场：25/26年度供需收紧，短期高位震荡

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the supply and demand dynamics for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate, with a general tightening in global vegetable oil supply and demand in the 2025/26 period, leading to potential price support [1] Group 2 - For palm oil, Malaysia's production is projected to be close to last year's levels at 19-19.5 million tons, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation expected until October [1] - Indonesia is anticipated to increase production by 2 million tons to 55 million tons, supported by the B40 policy and export demand, maintaining a tight balance in inventory for the second half of the year [1] - International palm oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations in Q3, with a potential strengthening in Q4 [1] Group 3 - In the soybean oil sector, South American soybean production is expected to increase in the 2024/25 season, alleviating supply pressure after July [1] - The U.S. soybean supply and demand are projected to tighten for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, with weather during critical growth periods posing risks [1] - Domestic soybean oil imports are expected to exceed 10 million tons in Q3, with high operating rates in oil mills leading to strong inventory accumulation expectations [1] Group 4 - For rapeseed oil, a slight increase in global rapeseed production is expected for the 2025/26 season, while export demand is anticipated to decline significantly [1] - The EU is projected to increase production, but prior drought conditions may lead to lower-than-expected yields, while Australian rapeseed production is expected to decrease significantly [1] - Domestic rapeseed imports may decline post-June due to anti-dumping concerns, leading to potential inventory depletion and tighter supply [1] Group 5 - The short-term outlook suggests that with weak crude oil prices and no immediate weather-related speculation for U.S. soybeans, domestic soybean and palm oil inventories are likely to accumulate, making it difficult for oil prices to rise [1] - However, the global vegetable oil supply and demand are expected to tighten in the 2025/26 period, providing strong support for oil prices, with the potential for a seasonal increase in Q4 [1] - Strategy recommendations include monitoring support levels for soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts, with cautious buying near these support levels [1]