Core Viewpoint - The US manufacturing sector continues to experience contraction, with the ISM manufacturing index indicating a decline in orders and employment, while inflationary pressures are showing signs of acceleration [1][3]. Group 1: ISM Manufacturing Data - The ISM manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49, slightly above the expected 48.8 and the previous value of 48.5, with 50 being the threshold for expansion [3]. - The new orders index fell to 46.4, below the expected 48.1 and previous 47.6, marking the largest decline in three months and reflecting ongoing economic slowdown [6]. - The employment index dropped to 45, a three-month low, with expectations at 47.1 and a previous value of 46.8, indicating five consecutive months of contraction in employment [6]. - The prices paid index reached 69.7, close to the highest level since June 2022, with expectations at 69.5 and a previous value of 69.4, highlighting rising raw material costs [6]. - The backlog of orders index decreased by 2.8 points to 44.3, the largest drop in a year, and has been in contraction for 33 consecutive months [6]. Group 2: Employment and Industry Analysis - Weak demand and reduced order backlogs are contributing to the accelerated decline in manufacturing employment, with a significant ratio of comments indicating layoffs compared to hiring [7]. - In June, nine manufacturing sectors experienced growth, with notable increases in apparel, petroleum, and non-metallic mineral products, while six sectors, including textiles and wood products, contracted [7]. - The S&P Global reported a Markit manufacturing PMI final value of 52.9 for June, indicating a recovery in manufacturing output after three months of decline, driven by new orders from domestic and export customers [7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Price Pressures - The improvement in manufacturing output may be partially driven by inventory accumulation as companies prepare for potential supply issues and price increases related to tariffs [8]. - There are concerns regarding whether the current price pressures are a short-term adjustment or indicative of persistent inflation returning [8]. - Despite the challenges, business confidence has been recovering since April, with manufacturers feeling more optimistic amid reduced trade and tariff uncertainties [8].
美国6月ISM制造业连续四个月萎缩,就业再收缩,价格指数加速
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-07-01 18:39