宏观经济周报（2025年6月23日-6月29日）

Major Events - The Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that the outcome of the trade war initiated by Trump is highly unpredictable, with trade tariffs having a more unclear impact on inflation than on economic growth [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that current inflation levels remain above the Fed's 2% target, and the specific effects of Trump's tariff policies are still unclear. However, the Fed is in a favorable position to wait for clearer economic signals before adjusting monetary policy [1] - South Korean President Lee Jae-myung expressed that the South Korean economy is in a desperate situation, and the government is formulating a supplementary budget to promote consumption and support vulnerable groups [1] - The Federal Reserve announced that the latest stress tests showed that 22 of the largest U.S. banks can maintain capital levels above regulatory requirements under extreme hypothetical scenarios, indicating resilience against severe economic downturns [1] Legislative Developments - The U.S. Senate passed a procedural motion by a vote of 51 to 49 to advance a large tax and spending bill referred to by Trump as the "big and beautiful" bill, aiming for it to be sent to the President for signing by July 4 [2] Geopolitical Events - Russia launched a new round of large-scale missile and drone attacks across Ukraine, described as the largest airstrike operation since the conflict began [2] Technological Advancements - China announced the release of a new generation of domestically developed general-purpose processor, Longxin 3C6000, which matches the performance of mainstream products expected in 2023 or 2024, emphasizing self-reliance in technology [2] Financial Sector Insights - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chan Mo-po highlighted the significant potential of fintech in cross-border trade, aiming to address long-standing issues of slow payment speeds and high costs, with regulations for stablecoins set to take effect on August 1 [3] Economic Data - The Conference Board reported that the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for June was 93, below the expected 99.8 [4] - The U.S. Census Bureau revealed that new single-family home sales in May fell sharply by 13.7% month-over-month, with an annualized rate of 623,000 units, significantly below market expectations [4] - Canada's CPI rose by 1.7% year-over-year in May, with housing rent price increases slowing down [4] - Germany recorded 11,900 corporate bankruptcies in the first half of the year, a 9.4% increase from the previous year, marking the highest level in a decade [4] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3424.226, down 0.70% from the previous trading day, with a year-to-date increase of 15.20% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.00% to 43819.27, with a year-to-date increase of 11.99% [5] - Brent crude oil prices decreased by 0.60% to $66.34 per barrel, with a year-over-year decline of 21.47% [8] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 4.274%, with a recent increase of 2.9 basis points [9]