美元疲软支撑金价持续攀升，金饰克价难破1200元短期可期

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the decline in the US dollar supports the rise in gold prices, the likelihood of gold jewelry prices reaching 1200 yuan per gram in the short term is low, requiring a multi-dimensional analysis [1][12]. - The negative correlation between the US dollar and gold prices indicates that a weaker dollar typically benefits gold priced in dollars, making it cheaper for holders of other currencies and stimulating global demand [1][3]. - Historical data shows that during periods of dollar weakness, such as June 2025, international gold prices rebounded, with domestic gold jewelry prices following suit [3][5]. Group 2 - Factors supporting the possibility of gold prices reaching 1200 yuan per gram include a significant drop in the dollar, geopolitical crises, and speculative fervor, although the probability of this scenario is less than 20% [5][12]. - Current influences on gold prices include synchronized depreciation of non-US currencies, which diminishes gold's attractiveness, and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies that could delay easing measures despite potential interest rate cuts [4][12]. - Geopolitical sensitivity is highlighted, as a de-escalation in Middle Eastern tensions previously led to a significant drop in gold prices, indicating that renewed conflicts could trigger short-term spikes but are unlikely to sustain high prices [5][12]. Group 3 - Market sentiment and leverage risks are present, with current gold prices reflecting high-risk premiums and technical indicators showing signs of divergence [6][7]. - The rise of alternative assets, such as platinum and cryptocurrencies, is diverting funds away from gold, impacting its demand [8]. - Recommendations for consumers include prioritizing essential purchases through low-cost channels and for investors to diversify their portfolios while being cautious of high-level corrections [9][11].