未来五年，房子是白菜价还是黄金价？李嘉诚与王健林的判断一致

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has experienced significant fluctuations over the past few decades, with property values in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen seeing dramatic increases, but recent trends indicate a potential decline in prices, especially for properties purchased at market peaks [2][4][6]. Market Trends - From 1998 to 2021, the average national housing price increased from 2,000 to 16,000, a rise of over five times, with major cities experiencing even higher growth [2]. - In Shenzhen, the average price peaked at 70,000 to 80,000 per square meter in 2021, but has since dropped to around 50,000, with some areas falling to 40,000, resulting in significant losses for recent buyers [4][6]. Government Policies - Various government measures have been implemented to stabilize the housing market, including increasing public housing loan limits, lowering mortgage rates, and reducing down payment requirements to 15% [6]. Future Predictions - Opinions are divided on the future of housing prices, with some experts suggesting that core properties in first-tier cities will retain high value, while others predict that properties in lower-tier cities will decline significantly [7][11]. - Influential figures like Wang Jianlin and Li Ka-shing have expressed skepticism about the long-term sustainability of high property prices, indicating a potential market correction in the next five years [9][11]. Market Segmentation - The real estate market is expected to become increasingly segmented, with only about 20% of regions likely to see price increases, particularly in areas with strong population inflows and economic growth [13]. - The overall trend suggests a shift away from speculative investments towards properties that align more closely with local income levels and housing needs [15].