站在降息的十字路口——2025年下半年美债市场展望

Group 1 - The core theme of the US Treasury market in the first half of 2025 was characterized by significant volatility and rapid changes, contrasting sharply with previous years' trends [2] - The market experienced three main phases: 1. From January to March, expectations shifted dramatically following Trump's inauguration, with the 10-year Treasury yield peaking at 4.8% in mid-January before falling to a low of 4.1% [4][5] 2. In April and May, the market saw fluctuations due to tariff negotiations, with yields dropping to a low of 3.85% before rebounding by 70 basis points [5] 3. In June, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East led to a strengthening of the market, with yields falling below 4.3% as economic data showed signs of weakness [6] Group 2 - The labor market is showing signs of weakening while inflation expectations are strengthening, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% and average non-farm payrolls declining to 139,000 [12][16] - Market expectations indicate a potential rebound in inflation, with CPI projected to rise from 2.4% to approximately 2.8% in June [12][16] - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts are influenced by the interplay between labor market conditions and inflation expectations, with scenarios suggesting possible cuts if non-farm payrolls fall below 80,000 [17][18] Group 3 - The implementation of Trump's economic pillars—trade, tax cuts, and deregulation—has seen significant developments, particularly in tariff negotiations and tax legislation [22] - Ongoing tariff negotiations have extended, with the US making limited progress with key trading partners, which may delay the impact on inflation [23] - The tax reform bill is under urgent consideration, with potential increases in the federal deficit projected to rise significantly, impacting market perceptions of Treasury supply [25][26] Group 4 - There is a notable divergence in market expectations regarding interest rate cuts among foreign banks, with predictions ranging from no cuts to three cuts by the end of 2025 [30] - The market is currently pricing in a potential for three rate cuts, reflecting a shift towards a softer landing for the economy [30][31] - The upcoming appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair could influence market expectations for future interest rate paths, with potential candidates favoring more accommodative policies [20][21] Group 5 - The overall sentiment in the market suggests a cautious outlook, with expectations of further declines in Treasury yields as inflation concerns ease and labor market data weakens [31] - The 10-year Treasury yield is anticipated to test lower levels, potentially falling below 4.2%, although upward pressure remains if inflationary pressures materialize [31]