辛特拉央行年会｜鲍威尔称7月降息未排除，全球央行面临高度不确定性

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in July has become a focal point for the market, with Chairman Powell indicating that decisions will be data-driven and not ruled out for any meeting [1][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Powell's comments suggest a shift from previous indications of considering rate cuts in the fall, with a current probability of a 25 basis point cut in July rising to about 25% from under 20% a week prior [1] - Market expectations indicate that investors believe the Fed will initiate a rate cut cycle by the end of September, with a total of two cuts amounting to 50 basis points by year-end [1][4] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.7% year-over-year, above the previous value and market expectations, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [4] - Real consumer spending showed a decline of 0.1% month-over-month, marking the first decrease since December 2024, reflecting weakening consumer momentum [4] - Personal income fell by 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month decline since March 2023, indicating increased pressure on income [4] Group 3: Global Economic Uncertainty - Central bank leaders, including Powell, expressed concerns over unprecedented global policy uncertainty, with inflation risks being driven by both downward pressures from commodity prices and upward pressures from geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties [3] - The discussion highlighted a cautious outlook on short-term inflation paths among major central bank officials, with differing views on the pace and priority of policy adjustments [3] Group 4: Diverging Opinions within the Fed - There is a growing divergence within the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some officials suggesting earlier action if inflation remains controlled, while others express caution due to economic slowdown concerns [5][4] - The June FOMC dot plot revealed that among 19 members, opinions varied significantly on the likelihood of rate cuts in 2025, with some expecting no cuts and others anticipating multiple cuts [4]