集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约午后大涨

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a significant increase of 7.80%, driven by market expectations of stable spot prices and geopolitical tensions affecting market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The shipping index futures have been on a downward trend since mid-May due to weak fundamentals, with supply continuously increasing and demand recovery falling short of expectations [3]. - The average weekly capacity for European routes is projected to reach 288,000 TEU in July, a 13% year-on-year increase, and is expected to rise to 292,000 TEU in August [3]. - The shipping market is returning to fundamental trading logic, with geopolitical risk premiums and tariff policies acting as short-term disruptive factors [3]. Group 2: Price Expectations - Market analysts suggest that shipping companies may issue price increase notices in anticipation of the peak season, despite the lack of clear positive fundamentals [2][4]. - The current spot market is entering a demand peak, with shipping companies likely to adopt pricing strategies aimed at preventing further declines [4]. - The potential for price increases is contingent on the recovery of terminal demand and the execution of price hikes by shipping companies [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Policy Factors - Key factors influencing the shipping index futures include U.S. tariff policies, spot market conditions, and geopolitical situations, particularly the potential for renewed conflict in the Middle East [3][4]. - The expiration of the "reciprocal tariff" policy's grace period and ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are critical, as outcomes could significantly impact global trade dynamics and market sentiment [3]. - Any escalation in geopolitical tensions could delay the resumption of shipping operations through critical routes like the Suez Canal [4].